What is NVDA's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is $162.80 per share, versus a market price of $214.13 (priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76).

Is NVDA overvalued or undervalued?

Priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76 at $214.13. We don't call NVDA overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for NVDA?

A WACC of 14.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is NVIDIA stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is $162.80 against a market price of $214.13. Our read: Priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

NVIDIA (NVDA) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is $162.80, built on a 14.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

NVIDIA (NVDA) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): COXE TENCH, Director, gift on 2026-10-07. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

NVDA · Intrinsic value

Is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) trades at the delayed market price of $214.13 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $162.80 a share (priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate; every input is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full NVDA analysis

Is NVDA fairly valued?

Fair value: $162.80
Market price: $214.13
Downside to fair value: 24.0%
Verdict: Priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:53 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: Priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is NVDA's TickerWorth Score?

B61/100

A stronger business than most — but not cheap

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.

Value · 31 of 100
Cheaper than 31% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 31 of 100
Quality · 94 of 100
More profitable than 94% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 72 of 100
Financially stronger than 72% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 88 of 100
Growing faster than 88% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 57 of 100
Outperformed 57% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:48 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE CYCLICAL CALL, MADE DELIBERATELY: THIS MODEL DOES NOT TRIP THE RANGE-ONLY CYCLICAL FLAG. The margin fades from 65.0% to 53.0% (0.815 of peak, above the 0.75 line) and revenue never declines. I considered the opposite and the evidence for it is real: NVIDIA has had digestion years before (FY2023 operating margin was ~16%), revenue will have roughly tripled in two years, its largest customers reported negative free cash flow last quarter (CNBC: Amazon and Alphabet), receivables stretched to 60 days on extended terms, a memory shortage is the kind of tightness that breeds double-ordering, and NVIDIA is now backstopping customers' data-center leases ($105B) — the vendor-financing pattern that preceded the 2001 telecom bust. But no filed or guided number yet shows a roll-over: Q3 is guided +12% sequentially, FY2028 is guided +70% and supply-constrained through FY2028, and NVIDIA has contracted $88B of supply for FY2029 — as much as for FY2028. Timing a down year inside the forecast would be my guess presented as a finding. So the model takes the honest middle: an abrupt landing (70% -> 10%) and a 12-point margin fade, no decline. The cost of being wrong is quantified, not hidden: an FY2029 revenue drop of 25% with margin falling to 45% takes the value from ~$106 to ~$70.
THE DISCOUNT RATE, NOT THE FORECAST, IS WHY THE MODEL IS SO FAR BELOW THE PRICE. A 1.86 beta gives a 14.5% cost of equity, applied in perpetuity, which implies a terminal exit multiple of only ~6.6x EBITDA. Even with the growth path left untouched, a beta of 1.0 (WACC 10.2%) gives ~$165, still below $233.95. A mature NVIDIA would likely carry a lower beta than today's; a single constant WACC cannot express that, and it is the harshest assumption here.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~89% ABOVE THE BASE-YEAR FCF ($183.0B modeled vs $96,575M reported for FY2026) — beyond the 20% threshold, so stated. This is growth, not method: revenue is modeled +86%. Against the trailing twelve months ($126.9B to 2026-07-26) it is +44%. The model's FY2027 FCF needs H2 FCF of ~$113B against H1's $69.9B, which assumes the Q2 receivables stretch (DSO 45 -> 60 days) does not repeat; if it does, Year 1 is too high.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~59% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — lower than most models in this tracker because the high discount rate shrinks the far future and the FY2027-FY2028 cash flows are so large. The two guided years alone carry a material share of the value.
OFF-BALANCE-SHEET EXPOSURE, SIZED NOT MODELED. $108.5B of maximum guarantee exposure (overwhelmingly the OpenAI/PORTS-Pike residual-value guaranties, which OpenAI has agreed to reimburse and which terminate if OpenAI achieves a satisfactory credit rating), $36B of AI-cloud agreements under which NVIDIA buys back capacity, $25B of committed equity investments and $279B of supply commitments 'primarily related to the procurement of memory'. In a downturn these turn from growth enablers into liabilities: a supply book sized for +70% demand is inventory risk if demand stalls. Each $10B of realized loss is ~$0.41/share — small against the gap, large against the narrative.
CUSTOMER CONCENTRATION. In H1 FY2027 three direct customers were 16%, 15% and 13% of revenue (10-Q), and the 10-Q says one AI research company 'contributed a meaningful amount' of revenue indirectly through cloud purchases. Concentration has broadened from a year ago (23% and 16% in Q2 FY26) but remains high.
SBC of $6,386M in FY2026 (3.0% of revenue; $3,954M in H1 FY27) is expensed inside GAAP EBIT, so no further deduction is taken; NVIDIA itself has included SBC in its non-GAAP figures since Q1 FY2027. Dilution is carried by the weighted-diluted share count, which is falling on buybacks.
CHINA IS AT ZERO. Management's outlook assumes no China data-center compute revenue and Hopper shipments to China were under 1% of Data Center revenue in Q2. Any reopening is upside not in the model; further export restrictions cost little from here.

NVDA DCF valuation, input by input

TickerWorth's fair value for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is $162.80 a share, against the delayed market price of $214.13 (priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values NVDA at about $106.05 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts NVIDIA Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 14.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 59% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — NVDA would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NVDA's modeled DCF value ranges from about $90.18 to $130.06 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what NVIDIA Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NVDA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind NVDA's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueNVIDIA FY2026 10-K (accession 0001045810-26-000021, filed 2026-02-25): us-gaap:Revenues, fiscal year ended 2026-01-25: $215,938M, +65% on FY2025's $130,497M. Data Center was $193.7B of it (Q4 FY26 release, accession 0001045810-26-000019). NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in late January, so FY2026 is essentially calendar 2025 and is the latest COMPLETED year with a filed 10-K. UNCHANGED as the base — the DCF grows this figure by forecast.revenue_growth, so the two FY2027 quarters already reported belong in Year 1, not here. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 (to 2026-07-26) revenue was $177,837M, +96% on H1 FY2026's $90,805M; TTM to 2026-07-26 is $302,970M ($215,938M - $90,805M + $177,837M). The base year is already 40% below the trailing run-rate, which is why Year 1 growth is so large.	$215,938,000,000	NVIDIA FY2026 10-K (accession 0001045810-26-000021, filed 2026-02-25): us-gaap:Revenues, fiscal year ended 2026-01-25: $215,938M, +65% on FY2025's $130,497M. Data Center was $193.7B of it (Q4 FY26 release, accession 0001045810-26-000019). NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in late January, so FY2026 is essentially calendar 2025 and is the latest COMPLETED year with a filed 10-K. UNCHANGED as the base — the DCF grows this figure by forecast.revenue_growth, so the two FY2027 quarters already reported belong in Year 1, not here. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 (to 2026-07-26) revenue was $177,837M, +96% on H1 FY2026's $90,805M; TTM to 2026-07-26 is $302,970M ($215,938M - $90,805M + $177,837M). The base year is already 40% below the trailing run-rate, which is why Year 1 growth is so large.
Base EBIT marginNVIDIA FY2026 10-K (accession 0001045810-26-000021, filed 2026-02-25): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss $130,387M / revenue $215,938M = 60.38%, GAAP. Includes SBC ($6,386M) and acquired-intangible amortization, so this is the conservative, fully-loaded line. It is DEPRESSED by roughly $4.3B of net H20 (China) inventory and purchase-obligation charges in H1 FY2026 (release footnote: $4.5B charge in Q1 FY26, $180M release in Q2 FY26); ex-H20 the year ran ~62.4%. Kept GAAP rather than adjusted. CROSS-CHECK, LATEST QUARTERS: H1 FY2027 GAAP operating income $117,270M / $177,837M = 65.94% (Q1 65.6%, Q2 66.2%) — so the margin has risen since the base year, which matters for the cyclical flag: the engine measures the fade off the HIGHER of this and Year 1.	60.4%	NVIDIA FY2026 10-K (accession 0001045810-26-000021, filed 2026-02-25): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss $130,387M / revenue $215,938M = 60.38%, GAAP. Includes SBC ($6,386M) and acquired-intangible amortization, so this is the conservative, fully-loaded line. It is DEPRESSED by roughly $4.3B of net H20 (China) inventory and purchase-obligation charges in H1 FY2026 (release footnote: $4.5B charge in Q1 FY26, $180M release in Q2 FY26); ex-H20 the year ran ~62.4%. Kept GAAP rather than adjusted. CROSS-CHECK, LATEST QUARTERS: H1 FY2027 GAAP operating income $117,270M / $177,837M = 65.94% (Q1 65.6%, Q2 66.2%) — so the margin has risen since the base year, which matters for the cyclical flag: the engine measures the fade off the HIGHER of this and Year 1.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	86% → 70% → 10% → 5% → 3%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate; published Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta 2.217 as the anchor: Published 5Y-monthly beta is 2.217 (Yahoo/yfinance, read 2026-10-03); I reproduced it from yfinance prices vs the S&P 500 (2.216, 61 monthly returns). Normalized DOWN to 1.86, which RAISES the value (about +$14/share vs 2.217). Reasons: (1) the 5-year window opens in late 2021 and is dominated by the 2022 drawdown and 2023 re-rating of what was then a ~$0.4-1T gaming/crypto-exposed chip company, not today's ~$5.6T AI-infrastructure supplier; (2) every shorter window I measured is lower — 3Y monthly 1.90, 2Y weekly 1.86, 2Y daily 1.92, 1Y weekly 1.62 — and the standard Blume adjustment of the published figure (0.67 x 2.217 + 0.33) is 1.82. 1.86 is the median of those five. Even so this is a HIGH beta and the dominant input in the model: cost of equity is 14.5%, applied forever. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $5-6/share; a beta of 1.0 gives ~$165.	1.86	ESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate; published Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta 2.217 as the anchor: Published 5Y-monthly beta is 2.217 (Yahoo/yfinance, read 2026-10-03); I reproduced it from yfinance prices vs the S&P 500 (2.216, 61 monthly returns). Normalized DOWN to 1.86, which RAISES the value (about +$14/share vs 2.217). Reasons: (1) the 5-year window opens in late 2021 and is dominated by the 2022 drawdown and 2023 re-rating of what was then a ~$0.4-1T gaming/crypto-exposed chip company, not today's ~$5.6T AI-infrastructure supplier; (2) every shorter window I measured is lower — 3Y monthly 1.90, 2Y weekly 1.86, 2Y daily 1.92, 1Y weekly 1.62 — and the standard Blume adjustment of the published figure (0.67 x 2.217 + 0.33) is 1.82. 1.86 is the median of those five. Even so this is a HIGH beta and the dominant input in the model: cost of equity is 14.5%, applied forever. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $5-6/share; a beta of 1.0 gives ~$165.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. Well below the 14.48% WACC. A strong case could be made for a higher number on a secular AI view, but that is exactly the kind of judgement the explicit years (+70% in FY2028) already carry; 3.0% adds only ~$3/share because the high WACC shrinks the terminal.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. Well below the 14.48% WACC. A strong case could be made for a higher number on a secular AI view, but that is exactly the kind of judgement the explicit years (+70% in FY2028) already carry; 3.0% adds only ~$3/share because the high WACC shrinks the terminal.
Diluted sharesNVIDIA Q2 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0001045810-26-000075, filed 2026-08-26): Q2 FY2027 weighted-average diluted shares 24,285M (basic 24,190M; H1 diluted 24,338M; FY2026 24,514M). The count is FALLING: buybacks ($39.0B in H1 FY27, $99.0B authorization remaining) more than offset SBC issuance. Diluted rather than the 24.1B outstanding because that is how this tracker carries SBC dilution.	24,285M	NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0001045810-26-000075, filed 2026-08-26): Q2 FY2027 weighted-average diluted shares 24,285M (basic 24,190M; H1 diluted 24,338M; FY2026 24,514M). The count is FALLING: buybacks ($39.0B in H1 FY27, $99.0B authorization remaining) more than offset SBC issuance. Diluted rather than the 24.1B outstanding because that is how this tracker carries SBC dilution.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:53 UTC	$214.13	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:53 UTC

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What does NVIDIA Corporation do?

What does it do?

NVIDIA designs and sells semiconductors for data centers, artificial intelligence, gaming, and autonomous vehicles. The company operates through two segments: Compute & Networking (which includes AI infrastructure and automotive solutions) and Graphics (which includes gaming GPUs and enterprise graphics cards).

How does it make money?

NVIDIA generates revenue by selling AI accelerator chips, data center networking products, gaming GPUs, and enterprise graphics processors to customers globally. In its most recent period, the company reported total revenue of approximately $303 billion.

Is it financially healthy?

NVIDIA shows strong financial health with a gross margin of 74.7%, an operating margin of 66.2%, and a net profit margin of 63.7%. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 and a current ratio of 4.59, indicating low leverage and strong short-term liquidity.

Who at NVDA filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for NVIDIA Corporation
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
7 Oct 2026	COXE TENCH	Director	Gift	—	Form 4 for COXE TENCH (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
21 Sept 2026	Teter Timothy S.	EVP, General Counsel and Sec	Open-market sale	$2,773,637.72	Form 4 for Teter Timothy S. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
21 Sept 2026	Teter Timothy S.	EVP, General Counsel and Sec	Open-market sale	$3,006,253.07	Form 4 for Teter Timothy S. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
21 Sept 2026	Teter Timothy S.	EVP, General Counsel and Sec	Open-market sale	$1,006,641.80	Form 4 for Teter Timothy S. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
18 Sept 2026	STEVENS MARK A	Director	Open-market sale	$297,942,896.40	Form 4 for STEVENS MARK A (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
18 Sept 2026	STEVENS MARK A	Director	Open-market sale	$2,204,199.00	Form 4 for STEVENS MARK A (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is NVDA's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is $162.80 per share, versus a market price of $214.13 (priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76).
Is NVDA overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76 at $214.13. We don't call NVDA overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NVDA?
A WACC of 14.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is NVIDIA stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is $162.80 against a market price of $214.13. Our read: Priced within our range of $106.05 – $235.76. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
NVIDIA (NVDA) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is $162.80, built on a 14.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into NVIDIA stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $214.13. A model estimate, not investment advice.
NVIDIA (NVDA) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): COXE TENCH, Director, gift on 2026-10-07. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.