What is TXN's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) between $49.08 and $270.46 per share, versus a market price of $276.48. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is TXN overvalued or undervalued?

At $276.48 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call TXN overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for TXN?

A WACC of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Texas Instruments stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is $49.08 – $270.46 against a market price of $276.48. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Texas Instruments (TXN) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is $49.08 – $270.46, built on a 11.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

Texas Instruments (TXN) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Abraham Tsedeniya, Sr. Vice President, option exercise on 2026-08-27. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

TXN · Intrinsic value

Is Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $49.08 – $270.46 for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), against the delayed market price of $276.48: priced above our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full TXN analysis

What is TXN worth?

Fair-value range: $49.08 – $270.46
Market price: $276.48
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Priced above our range

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Priced above our range.

Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the range above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is TXN's TickerWorth Score?

C51/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.

Value · 30 of 100
Cheaper than 30% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 29 of 100
Quality · 79 of 100
More profitable than 79% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 51 of 100
Financially stronger than 51% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 48 of 100
Growing faster than 48% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 83 of 100
Outperformed 83% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

YEAR-1 FCF IS ~120% ABOVE THE BASE-YEAR FCF MEMO ($6.48B modeled vs $2,938M reported for FY2025) — far past the 20% threshold, so stated explicitly. It is the capex cycle ending, not optimism: FY2025 carried $4,550M of capex vs $2,750M modeled for 2026, and operating profit rises ~$3.1B on +23% revenue. The fair comparison is the TTM to 2026-06-30, where TI-defined FCF was $6,534M INCLUDING $1,179M of CHIPS cash; the model's $6.48B excludes CHIPS entirely, so on a like-for-like basis it is ~$1.1B below TI's own run-rate.
THE MODEL DISAGREES WITH THE MARKET BY ~69%, AND NO SINGLE LEVER CLOSES IT. At an 11.5% WACC (5.24% Treasuries, published beta 1.31) the market's ~$277B enterprise value needs revenue to compound ~43%/yr for five years at a 39% margin, or a WACC of ~5.4% (barely above the 5.24% Treasury), or terminal growth of ~9.2%. Beta 1.0, a 3-point-richer margin path and 3% terminal growth TOGETHER reach only ~$126. The price embeds either a much lower discount rate than this house uses or a long, data-center-led growth phase that this model's cycle-aware path does not assume.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~66% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — below the 75% danger line, because the explicit years carry large free cash flow as capex falls. Implied exit multiple ~8.3x EBITDA, well under where TI has historically traded; that low multiple is the WACC talking.
A DOWN YEAR WAS CONSIDERED AND LEFT OUT. Replacing 2028's +1% with -10% (and a partial rebound) takes the value to ~$83 and would fire the mechanical range-only cyclical flag. I did not do it because the timing of the next analog downturn is unknowable five years out; the margin fade to through-cycle is the model's cycle allowance. The site's fair value should be read with that in mind.
Q4 2026 IS MY ESTIMATE. Year 1 is three quarters reported-or-guided and one quarter judgement (Q4 at $5.6B, ~43% margin). TI reports Q3 on 2026-10-21 and guides Q4 then; that call replaces my estimate.
SBC ($419M in FY2025, 2.4% of revenue) is expensed inside GAAP operating profit; dilution is carried by the 920M diluted share count.
THE SITE'S 'LENS MAY UNDERSTATE A FAST GROWER' CAVEAT WILL FIRE, AND FOR TI IT IS THE WRONG EXPLANATION. dcf_fit returns 'understated' through its growth arm: Year-1 growth is 23.2% (>= 15%) and the value is under a third of the price. The 23% is a cyclical recovery from a trough base, not hypergrowth; the explainer says so. Flagged for the orchestrator rather than tuned away.

Why TXN gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $276.48, Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $49.08 and $270.46 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Texas Instruments Incorporated's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 66% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — TXN would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 7.4% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TXN's modeled DCF value ranges from about $71.31 to $124.24 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Texas Instruments Incorporated would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TXN's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind TXN's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueTI FY2025 10-K (accession 0000097476-26-000059, filed 2026-02-06): Consolidated revenue FY2025 $17,682M, +13.0% on FY2024's $15,641M (Analog $14,006M, Embedded Processing $2,697M, Other $979M). CONTEXT THAT MATTERS: this is a RECOVERY year, not a peak — revenue is still 11.7% below the FY2022 cycle high of $20,028M after falling 12.5% in 2023 and 10.7% in 2024. UNCHANGED as the base; the 2026 upturn belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $10,288M (Q1 $4,825M + Q2 $5,463M), +21.0% on H1 2025's $8,517M, and TTM to 2026-06-30 is $19,453M per the Q2 release.	$17,682,000,000	TI FY2025 10-K (accession 0000097476-26-000059, filed 2026-02-06): Consolidated revenue FY2025 $17,682M, +13.0% on FY2024's $15,641M (Analog $14,006M, Embedded Processing $2,697M, Other $979M). CONTEXT THAT MATTERS: this is a RECOVERY year, not a peak — revenue is still 11.7% below the FY2022 cycle high of $20,028M after falling 12.5% in 2023 and 10.7% in 2024. UNCHANGED as the base; the 2026 upturn belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $10,288M (Q1 $4,825M + Q2 $5,463M), +21.0% on H1 2025's $8,517M, and TTM to 2026-06-30 is $19,453M per the Q2 release.
Base EBIT marginTI FY2025 10-K (accession 0000097476-26-000059, filed 2026-02-06): GAAP operating profit $6,023M / revenue $17,682M = 34.06%. Includes $117M of 'Restructuring charges/other' (150mm fab closures + a custom-ASIC goodwill impairment); ex that it is 34.7%. Left in, so the base is the GAAP line. THIS IS A TROUGH-CYCLE MARGIN, and the reason is mechanical rather than competitive: depreciation went from $925M (4.6% of revenue) in FY2022 to $1,918M (10.8%) in FY2025 as the 300mm fabs (Richardson RFAB2, Lehi LFAB, Sherman SM1) came into service ahead of the revenue to fill them, while the factories ran underloaded. The same company printed 50.6% in FY2022 and 36-43% across 2016-2020. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating profit $4,118M / $10,288M = 40.0%, and Q2 alone 42.3% ($2,310M / $5,463M) — the fall-through is already visible.	34.1%	TI FY2025 10-K (accession 0000097476-26-000059, filed 2026-02-06): GAAP operating profit $6,023M / revenue $17,682M = 34.06%. Includes $117M of 'Restructuring charges/other' (150mm fab closures + a custom-ASIC goodwill impairment); ex that it is 34.7%. Left in, so the base is the GAAP line. THIS IS A TROUGH-CYCLE MARGIN, and the reason is mechanical rather than competitive: depreciation went from $925M (4.6% of revenue) in FY2022 to $1,918M (10.8%) in FY2025 as the 300mm fabs (Richardson RFAB2, Lehi LFAB, Sherman SM1) came into service ahead of the revenue to fill them, while the factories ran underloaded. The same company printed 50.6% in FY2022 and 36-43% across 2016-2020. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating profit $4,118M / $10,288M = 40.0%, and Q2 alone 42.3% ($2,310M / $5,463M) — the fall-through is already visible.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	23% → 6% → 1% → 4% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateFRED DGS10, US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	FRED DGS10, US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo/yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.314, used AS PUBLISHED — not normalized. My own reproduction from yfinance monthly prices vs the S&P 500 (59 returns) gives 1.42, so the published figure is if anything the lower of the two. It is high against TI's older ~1.0 reputation as a defensive dividend semi, but the 60-month window genuinely contains a -40%+ peak-to-trough analog downturn and a 55% YTD rerating, which is what a cyclical's equity does; normalizing down would be a judgement in the GENEROUS direction with no event to point to. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $5-7/share; beta 1.0 gives ~$110.	1.31	Yahoo/yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.314, used AS PUBLISHED — not normalized. My own reproduction from yfinance monthly prices vs the S&P 500 (59 returns) gives 1.42, so the published figure is if anything the lower of the two. It is high against TI's older ~1.0 reputation as a defensive dividend semi, but the 60-month window genuinely contains a -40%+ peak-to-trough analog downturn and a 55% YTD rerating, which is what a cyclical's equity does; normalizing down would be a judgement in the GENEROUS direction with no event to point to. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $5-7/share; beta 1.0 gives ~$110.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (~long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Fair for TI: analog content per device keeps rising (EV power, industrial automation, data-center power delivery) and TI's peak-to-peak revenue growth has run ~3%/yr, but semis also see pricing deflation per function. Must stay below WACC of 11.5% — it does, comfortably. 3.0% adds ~$4/share.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (~long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Fair for TI: analog content per device keeps rising (EV power, industrial automation, data-center power delivery) and TI's peak-to-peak revenue growth has run ~3%/yr, but semis also see pricing deflation per function. Must stay below WACC of 11.5% — it does, comfortably. 3.0% adds ~$4/share.
Diluted sharesTI Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0000097476-26-000148, filed 2026-07-22): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 920M (basic 912M); was 913M for FY2025 and 914M in Q1 2026. The count ROSE this year: buybacks nearly stopped (only $185M in H1 2026 vs $955M in H1 2025, as cash is held for Silicon Labs) while employee option exercises brought in $754M. Diluted count is how this model carries SBC dilution.	920M	TI Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0000097476-26-000148, filed 2026-07-22): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 920M (basic 912M); was 913M for FY2025 and 914M in Q1 2026. The count ROSE this year: buybacks nearly stopped (only $185M in H1 2026 vs $955M in H1 2025, as cash is held for Silicon Labs) while employee option exercises brought in $754M. Diluted count is how this model carries SBC dilution.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC	$276.48	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC

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What does Texas Instruments Incorporated do?

What does it do?

Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. It operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments. It operates in the Semiconductors industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 33,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $19.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $43 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 42.6%), after a 58% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 31.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.8× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (4.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at TXN filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Texas Instruments Incorporated
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
27 Aug 2026	Abraham Tsedeniya	Sr. Vice President	Option exercise	$108,189.90	Form 4 for Abraham Tsedeniya (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
27 Aug 2026	Abraham Tsedeniya	Sr. Vice President	Open-market sale	$1,695,556.80	Form 4 for Abraham Tsedeniya (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
27 Aug 2026	Abraham Tsedeniya	Sr. Vice President	Open-market sale	$156,856.32	Form 4 for Abraham Tsedeniya (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
24 Jul 2026	Knecht Julie C.	VP & Chief Accounting Officer	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Knecht Julie C. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 May 2026	Craighead Martin S	Director	Open-market sale	$3,089,689.52	Form 4 for Craighead Martin S (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 May 2026	Craighead Martin S	Director	Open-market sale	$114,599.46	Form 4 for Craighead Martin S (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is TXN's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) between $49.08 and $270.46 per share, versus a market price of $276.48. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is TXN overvalued or undervalued?
At $276.48 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call TXN overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for TXN?
A WACC of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Texas Instruments stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is $49.08 – $270.46 against a market price of $276.48. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Texas Instruments (TXN) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is $49.08 – $270.46, built on a 11.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Texas Instruments stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $276.48. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Texas Instruments (TXN) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Abraham Tsedeniya, Sr. Vice President, option exercise on 2026-08-27. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.