What is AMD's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is $220.04 per share, versus a market price of $528.75 (140% above fair value).

Is AMD overvalued or undervalued?

Our cash-flow model understates a business growing this fast, so we don't call AMD overvalued on it. Against a blend that leans on peer multiples, the price of $528.75 sits 140% above our estimate. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for AMD?

A WACC of 13.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Advanced Micro Devices stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is $220.04 against a market price of $528.75. Our read: 140% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is $220.04, built on a 13.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD): Norrod Forrest Eugene, EVP & GM DSG, option exercise on 2026-09-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

AMD · Intrinsic value

Is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) trades at the delayed market price of $528.75 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $220.04 a share (140% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full AMD analysis

Is AMD overvalued?

Fair value: $220.04
Market price: $528.75
Downside to fair value: 58.4%
Verdict: 140% above fair value

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: 140% above fair value.

Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the fair value above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is AMD's TickerWorth Score?

C47/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.

Value · 16 of 100
Cheaper than 16% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 3 of 100
Quality · 54 of 100
More profitable than 54% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 78 of 100
Financially stronger than 78% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 86 of 100
Growing faster than 86% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 73 of 100
Outperformed 73% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL DISAGREES WITH THE PRICE BY ABOUT 82%, AND NO SINGLE INPUT CLOSES IT. Reverse DCF on the engine's own economics: today's $633.91 needs ~94.8% revenue growth EVERY year for five years (to ~$972B of revenue in 2030, ~28x today), or a discount rate of ~4.6% (below the 5.24% risk-free rate, i.e. a negative beta), or 11.7% growth forever, or a flat margin above 95%. Even AMD's own long-term targets held for the whole horizon (35% growth AND a ~31.5% margin on this basis) give ~$176. This is the house lens meeting a hypergrowth stock; the engine's dcf_fit labels it 'understated' and the honest reading is that the market is pricing growth well beyond 2030 that this 5-year-then-2.5% structure cannot represent.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~70% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE, under the 75% danger line but only because the 13.2% discount rate shrinks the far future so hard. The implied terminal multiple is ~7.0x 2030 EBITDA — low for a company growing 8% in its final explicit year.
DISCOUNT RATE IS HIGH AND THAT IS THE HOUSE METHOD. WACC 13.16% = 5.24% risk-free + 1.60 beta x 5.0% ERP (equity is 99% of capital). The beta was already normalized DOWN from 2.476; the published figure gives ~$80/share.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~22% ABOVE FY2025's REPORTED $5,519M ($6.7B modeled), just past the 20% line. It decomposes into growth, not method: revenue +42% and margin up ~5.6 points add ~$4.6B of after-tax operating profit, partly absorbed by capex nearly tripling to ~$2.8B and ~$1.5B of working capital on $14.5B of new revenue. Against TTM FCF through Q2 2026 ($7,736M) the modeled Year 1 is ~13% LOWER, because capex is accelerating and the model charges working capital that H1's payables surge temporarily deferred.
CUSTOMER CONCENTRATION is the risk the numbers cannot show. The 2027 doubling of Data Center rests on a handful of buyers — OpenAI and Meta (6 GW each, first gigawatt shipping from 2H 2026), Anthropic (up to 2 GW, first gigawatt from 1H 2027), Microsoft, Oracle. A slip by one of them moves Year 2 by tens of billions; the warrants and the $4.1B of lease guarantees tie AMD's balance sheet to the same customers.
SBC of $1,638M in FY2025 (4.7% of revenue; $990M in H1 2026) stays expensed inside EBIT. This is why the margins here run 4-5 points below AMD's non-GAAP figures — the non-GAAP 27% in Q2 2026 is ~22% on this basis.
EXPORT CONTROLS: FY2025 absorbed ~$440M of net MI308 China charges and Q2 2025 an $800M charge; Q4 2025 included ~$390M of MI308 China revenue. China data-center AI revenue is not assumed to be material in the forecast; a fresh restriction on other products would hit Year 1-2.
SHELF LIFE: AMD reports Q3 2026 on or about 2026-11-03 (date ESTIMATED from market calendars; not yet on AMD's IR calendar). That print replaces the Q3 guidance in Year 1 with an actual and should carry Q4 guidance. Re-run then.

AMD DCF valuation: what the price assumes

At a recent price of $528.75, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) trades 140% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $220.04 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $115.92) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices AMD against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 13.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — AMD would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AMD's modeled DCF value ranges from about $95.28 to $149.10 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AMD's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind AMD's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueAMD Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-02-03; ties to FY2025 10-K (accession 0000002488-26-000018, filed 2026-02-04): Net revenue for the fiscal year ended 2025-12-27, +34% on FY2024's $25,785M. XBRL us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax in the 10-K = $34,639M, identical. Segments: Data Center $16,635M, Client $10,640M, Gaming $3,910M, Embedded $3,454M. FY2025 carries ~$440M of net MI308 export-control inventory charges (management's figure). UNCHANGED as the base; the 2026 ramp belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $21,789M, +44.1% on H1 2025's $15,123M (Q2 2026 10-Q, accession 0000002488-26-000123).	$34,639,000,000	AMD Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-02-03; ties to FY2025 10-K (accession 0000002488-26-000018, filed 2026-02-04): Net revenue for the fiscal year ended 2025-12-27, +34% on FY2024's $25,785M. XBRL us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax in the 10-K = $34,639M, identical. Segments: Data Center $16,635M, Client $10,640M, Gaming $3,910M, Embedded $3,454M. FY2025 carries ~$440M of net MI308 export-control inventory charges (management's figure). UNCHANGED as the base; the 2026 ramp belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $21,789M, +44.1% on H1 2025's $15,123M (Q2 2026 10-Q, accession 0000002488-26-000123).
Base EBIT marginAMD Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-02-03; FY2025 10-K (accession 0000002488-26-000018): THIS IS EBITA, NOT GAAP OPERATING INCOME, and that choice is the most important accounting call in the model. GAAP operating income $3,694M (10.66%) PLUS amortization of acquisition-related intangibles $2,254M ($1,031M in cost of sales + $1,223M in opex, both on the face of the income statement; the 10-K XBRL AmortizationOfIntangibleAssets tag reads $2,300M, a rounded figure) = $5,948M / $34,639M = 17.17%. Everything ELSE stays expensed: stock-based compensation $1,638M, acquisition-related and other costs $231M, the MI308 export charges. This is therefore NOT AMD's non-GAAP margin (22% for FY2025), which also strips out SBC. WHY: almost all of the amortization is Xilinx (2022, ~$49B paid in AMD stock) plus ZT Systems; it is a non-cash write-down of intangibles AMD already paid for, the shares issued for Xilinx are already in the diluted count, and it runs OFF on a filed schedule ($2,042M in 2027 falling to $1,457M in 2030). The engine holds D&A as a constant % of revenue, so keeping GAAP EBIT would bake a shrinking 2026 charge into the terminal year forever. See da_pct_revenue for the matching add-back and caveats for the IBM-method comparison. CROSS-CHECK, same derivation, H1 2026: GAAP operating income $3,466M + amortization $1,095M = $4,561M / $21,789M = 20.93%; Q2 2026 alone 21.97%.	17.2%	AMD Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-02-03; FY2025 10-K (accession 0000002488-26-000018): THIS IS EBITA, NOT GAAP OPERATING INCOME, and that choice is the most important accounting call in the model. GAAP operating income $3,694M (10.66%) PLUS amortization of acquisition-related intangibles $2,254M ($1,031M in cost of sales + $1,223M in opex, both on the face of the income statement; the 10-K XBRL AmortizationOfIntangibleAssets tag reads $2,300M, a rounded figure) = $5,948M / $34,639M = 17.17%. Everything ELSE stays expensed: stock-based compensation $1,638M, acquisition-related and other costs $231M, the MI308 export charges. This is therefore NOT AMD's non-GAAP margin (22% for FY2025), which also strips out SBC. WHY: almost all of the amortization is Xilinx (2022, ~$49B paid in AMD stock) plus ZT Systems; it is a non-cash write-down of intangibles AMD already paid for, the shares issued for Xilinx are already in the diluted count, and it runs OFF on a filed schedule ($2,042M in 2027 falling to $1,457M in 2030). The engine holds D&A as a constant % of revenue, so keeping GAAP EBIT would bake a shrinking 2026 charge into the terminal year forever. See da_pct_revenue for the matching add-back and caveats for the IBM-method comparison. CROSS-CHECK, same derivation, H1 2026: GAAP operating income $3,466M + amortization $1,095M = $4,561M / $21,789M = 20.93%; Q2 2026 alone 21.97%.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	42% → 60% → 25% → 13% → 8%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (published 5Y-monthly beta 2.476, yfinance, 2026-10-03): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 2.476. NORMALIZED DOWN to 1.60 — GENEROUS (lowers the discount rate, raises the value), the same direction and level this tracker uses for its other AI-melt-up semiconductors (MU 1.60, SNDK 1.60, STX/WDC/SK hynix 1.50). Evidence the published figure is inflated by one event: I regressed AMD's monthly returns on the S&P 500 myself, and the same 60-month window ending 2025-12-31 gives 1.95, ending 2024-12-31 gives 1.66, ending 2023-12-31 gives 1.69; 2-year weekly is 1.82. The 2026 run (from ~$220 in early April to $634) adds ~0.5 on its own. 1.60 sits at the bottom of AMD's own pre-2026 range. Sizing: the published 2.476 gives ~$80/share; 1.80 gives ~$105. No beta closes the gap — see what_market_believes.	1.60	ESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (published 5Y-monthly beta 2.476, yfinance, 2026-10-03): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 2.476. NORMALIZED DOWN to 1.60 — GENEROUS (lowers the discount rate, raises the value), the same direction and level this tracker uses for its other AI-melt-up semiconductors (MU 1.60, SNDK 1.60, STX/WDC/SK hynix 1.50). Evidence the published figure is inflated by one event: I regressed AMD's monthly returns on the S&P 500 myself, and the same 60-month window ending 2025-12-31 gives 1.95, ending 2024-12-31 gives 1.66, ending 2023-12-31 gives 1.69; 2-year weekly is 1.82. The 2026 run (from ~$220 in early April to $634) adds ~0.5 on its own. 1.60 sits at the bottom of AMD's own pre-2026 range. Sizing: the published 2.476 gives ~$80/share; 1.80 gives ~$105. No beta closes the gap — see what_market_believes.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. FLAG: the drop from Year 5's 8% to 2.5% forever is abrupt for a company whose market argues it is early in a multi-year AI cycle; that is exactly where the disagreement with the price lives. A 3.5% terminal rate gives ~$125/share. Must remain well below WACC of 13.16%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. FLAG: the drop from Year 5's 8% to 2.5% forever is abrupt for a company whose market argues it is early in a multi-year AI cycle; that is exactly where the disagreement with the price lives. A 3.5% terminal rate gives ~$125/share. Must remain well below WACC of 13.16%.
Diluted sharesESTIMATEAssumption — AMD Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000002488-26-000123, filed 2026-08-05) + estimate for customer warrants: REPORTED BASE + A STATED ADJUSTMENT. Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares were 1,659M (basic 1,632M + 27M employee equity under the treasury method); AMD guides ~1.66B for Q3. That count EXCLUDES two customer warrants, because per the 10-Q 'no warrant shares had vested or become exercisable' at 2026-06-27: OpenAI (October 2025) and Meta (February 2026), EACH for up to 160M shares at $0.01, vesting in tranches as each customer's Instinct GPU purchases scale from 1 to 6 gigawatts, plus stock-price conditions. THE FORECAST ASSUMES THE GPU REVENUE THAT VESTS THEM, so leaving them out would count the revenue and ignore what AMD paid for it. I add HALF the 320M maximum (+160M), a judgement: the first gigawatt of each deployment ships from 2H 2026, this model's Data Center path through 2030 plausibly covers several gigawatts per customer but not all twelve, and tranche sizes and price thresholds are redacted. 1,659 + 160 = 1,819M. LOWERS value: zero warrants gives ~$127/share, the full 320M gives ~$107. Not included: the pending all-stock World Labs acquisition ($8.2B in AMD shares, ~13M shares at today's price) — see special_cases.	1,819M	ESTIMATEAssumption — AMD Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000002488-26-000123, filed 2026-08-05) + estimate for customer warrants: REPORTED BASE + A STATED ADJUSTMENT. Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares were 1,659M (basic 1,632M + 27M employee equity under the treasury method); AMD guides ~1.66B for Q3. That count EXCLUDES two customer warrants, because per the 10-Q 'no warrant shares had vested or become exercisable' at 2026-06-27: OpenAI (October 2025) and Meta (February 2026), EACH for up to 160M shares at $0.01, vesting in tranches as each customer's Instinct GPU purchases scale from 1 to 6 gigawatts, plus stock-price conditions. THE FORECAST ASSUMES THE GPU REVENUE THAT VESTS THEM, so leaving them out would count the revenue and ignore what AMD paid for it. I add HALF the 320M maximum (+160M), a judgement: the first gigawatt of each deployment ships from 2H 2026, this model's Data Center path through 2030 plausibly covers several gigawatts per customer but not all twelve, and tranche sizes and price thresholds are redacted. 1,659 + 160 = 1,819M. LOWERS value: zero warrants gives ~$127/share, the full 320M gives ~$107. Not included: the pending all-stock World Labs acquisition ($8.2B in AMD shares, ~13M shares at today's price) — see special_cases.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC	$528.75	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC

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What does Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is a semiconductor company that designs and sells AI accelerators, microprocessors, and graphics processing units (GPUs) across three business segments: Data Center, Client and Gaming, and Embedded. The company serves international markets with products ranging from standalone chips to integrated systems-on-chip (SoC) and related development services.

How does it make money?

AMD generates revenue by selling semiconductors and related products. In the trailing period, the company reported total revenue of $41.3 billion with a gross margin of 55.7%, meaning it retains approximately 56 cents of revenue after direct production costs.

Is it financially healthy?

AMD shows solid financial health. The company has a net profit margin of 15.6%, an operating margin of 17.3%, a current ratio of 2.61 (indicating it has $2.61 in current assets per $1 of current liabilities), and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.064.

Who at AMD filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
15 Sept 2026	Norrod Forrest Eugene	EVP & GM DSG	Option exercise	$616,095.85	Form 4 for Norrod Forrest Eugene (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Norrod Forrest Eugene	EVP & GM DSG	Open-market sale	$377,213.10	Form 4 for Norrod Forrest Eugene (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Norrod Forrest Eugene	EVP & GM DSG	Open-market sale	$49,898.00	Form 4 for Norrod Forrest Eugene (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Norrod Forrest Eugene	EVP & GM DSG	Open-market sale	$509,181.39	Form 4 for Norrod Forrest Eugene (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Norrod Forrest Eugene	EVP & GM DSG	Open-market sale	$830,313.50	Form 4 for Norrod Forrest Eugene (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Norrod Forrest Eugene	EVP & GM DSG	Open-market sale	$2,953,401.10	Form 4 for Norrod Forrest Eugene (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is AMD's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is $220.04 per share, versus a market price of $528.75 (140% above fair value).
Is AMD overvalued or undervalued?
Our cash-flow model understates a business growing this fast, so we don't call AMD overvalued on it. Against a blend that leans on peer multiples, the price of $528.75 sits 140% above our estimate. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AMD?
A WACC of 13.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Advanced Micro Devices stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is $220.04 against a market price of $528.75. Our read: 140% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is $220.04, built on a 13.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Advanced Micro Devices stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $528.75. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD): Norrod Forrest Eugene, EVP & GM DSG, option exercise on 2026-09-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.