What is NXPI's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) between $100.34 and $482.21 per share, versus a market price of $229.33. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is NXPI overvalued or undervalued?

At $229.33 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call NXPI overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for NXPI?

A WACC of 12.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is NXP Semiconductors stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is $100.34 – $482.21 against a market price of $229.33. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is $100.34 – $482.21, built on a 12.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI): Jensen Christopher L, EVP, Chief People Officer, open-market sale on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

NXPI · Intrinsic value

Is NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) at $100.34 – $482.21, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $229.33 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full NXPI analysis

What is NXPI worth?

Fair-value range: $100.34 – $482.21
Market price: $229.33
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is NXPI's TickerWorth Score?

C54/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.

Value · 69 of 100
Cheaper than 69% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 52 of 100
Quality · 71 of 100
More profitable than 71% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 35 of 100
Financially stronger than 35% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 47 of 100
Growing faster than 47% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 25 of 100
Outperformed 25% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL DISAGREES WITH THE MARKET BY ~57%, AND NO SINGLE REASONABLE LEVER CLOSES IT. At a 12.9% WACC (5.24% Treasuries, published beta 1.81) the market price needs, on its own: a WACC of ~7.7%, or terminal growth of ~8.7%, or a beta of ~0.58, or revenue compounding ~37%/yr in 2027-30 (to ~$50B), or a ~63% GAAP operating margin from 2027. Beta 1.2, a 3-point-richer margin path and 3% terminal growth TOGETHER reach ~$178.
BETA IS THE BIGGEST LEVER. The published 1.81 is high but reproducible (1.87 from my own monthly regression) and in line with auto/industrial chip peers (ON 2.05, Infineon 1.91, Microchip 1.76). Beta 1.5 gives ~$123, 1.2 ~$149, 1.0 ~$172.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~63% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — below the 75% danger line. Implied exit multiple ~6.6x EBITDA, which is low for NXP; that is the 12.9% discount rate expressed in a different unit.
YEAR-1 FCF (~$2.45B) IS WITHIN 1% OF THE FY2025 NXP-DEFINED FCF ($2,425M), BUT THE TWO ARE NOT LIKE-FOR-LIKE. The model deducts ~$900M of fab-JV equity and capacity payments that NXP's definition excludes; on the model's basis FY2025 was ~$1.6B, so Year 1 is ~50% higher — the margin recovery (+$1.4B of operating profit on +16% revenue).
A DOWN YEAR WAS CONSIDERED AND LEFT OUT. Replacing 2028's +2% with -8% (then +8%, +5%) takes the value to ~$95 and would fire the mechanical range-only cyclical flag. Not done because the timing of the next auto inventory correction is unknowable four years out; the margin fade from 32.5% to 30% is the model's cycle allowance.
Q4 2026 IS MY ESTIMATE. Year 1 is three quarters reported-or-guided and one quarter judgement ($3,850M at 32.5% GAAP margin). NXP reports Q3 and guides Q4 on 2026-10-27.
THE AUTOMATIC MODEL'S +79% GAP IS NOT REPRODUCED BY ITS OWN DCF TODAY. Re-running the site's auto-DCF code on 2026-10-06 values NXPI at ~$92 (beta 1.81, 24.8% margin held near flat) — on the same side of the price as this model. The +79% figure therefore does not come from the auto DCF's inputs as they stand; it could not be traced to anything in NXP's filings and is flagged for the orchestrator rather than explained.

Why NXPI gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $229.33, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $100.34 and $482.21 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value.

Read the full reasoning

We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

The valuation discounts NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 12.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 63% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — NXPI would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 7.0% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NXPI's modeled DCF value ranges from about $79.64 to $141.24 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what NXP Semiconductors N.V. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NXPI's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind NXPI's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueNXP FY2025 10-K (accession 0001413447-26-000008, filed 2026-02-19); figures also in the Q4 2025 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001413447-26-000003): Consolidated revenue FY2025 $12,269M, -2.7% on FY2024's $12,614M. NXP reports in USD under US GAAP and files 10-K/10-Q despite being a Dutch N.V. CONTEXT THAT MATTERS: this is the BOTTOM of an auto/industrial inventory correction, not a peak — revenue was $13,205M in FY2022 and $13,276M in FY2023, then fell two years running as Tier-1 auto suppliers and distributors worked down excess chip inventory. UNCHANGED as the base; the recovery belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $6,677M (Q1 $3,181M + Q2 $3,496M) is +15.9% on H1 2025's $5,761M, and TTM to 2026-06-28 is $13,185M (Q3 25 $3,173M + Q4 25 $3,335M + H1 26). NB the MEMS sensors business (sold to STMicroelectronics, closed 2026-02-02) is in the FY2025 base and out of 2026; NXP does not disclose its revenue in these filings, so no pro-forma adjustment is made — it makes Year-1 growth look slightly LOWER than the continuing business's.	$12,269,000,000	NXP FY2025 10-K (accession 0001413447-26-000008, filed 2026-02-19); figures also in the Q4 2025 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001413447-26-000003): Consolidated revenue FY2025 $12,269M, -2.7% on FY2024's $12,614M. NXP reports in USD under US GAAP and files 10-K/10-Q despite being a Dutch N.V. CONTEXT THAT MATTERS: this is the BOTTOM of an auto/industrial inventory correction, not a peak — revenue was $13,205M in FY2022 and $13,276M in FY2023, then fell two years running as Tier-1 auto suppliers and distributors worked down excess chip inventory. UNCHANGED as the base; the recovery belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $6,677M (Q1 $3,181M + Q2 $3,496M) is +15.9% on H1 2025's $5,761M, and TTM to 2026-06-28 is $13,185M (Q3 25 $3,173M + Q4 25 $3,335M + H1 26). NB the MEMS sensors business (sold to STMicroelectronics, closed 2026-02-02) is in the FY2025 base and out of 2026; NXP does not disclose its revenue in these filings, so no pro-forma adjustment is made — it makes Year-1 growth look slightly LOWER than the continuing business's.
Base EBIT marginNXP Q4 2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1, Tables 1 and 4 (accession 0001413447-26-000003, filed 2026-02-03): GAAP operating income $3,047M / revenue $12,269M = 24.83%. Includes $261M of restructuring (mostly Q4 2025, $177M, tied to the hybrid-manufacturing move to 300mm and fab consolidation), $151M of purchase-price amortization, $462M of share-based compensation and $143M of 'other incidentals'. Ex restructuring it is 27.0%; NXP's non-GAAP margin was 33.1%. Left as the GAAP line. History, GAAP: FY2022 28.8%, FY2023 27.6%, FY2024 27.1%, FY2025 24.8% — a trough-year print. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income is $2,576M on $6,677M, but Q1 contains a $627M one-off gain on the MEMS sale; ex that gain H1 is $1,949M = 29.2% (Q1 27.6%, Q2 30.6%). The forecast EXCLUDES the gain.	24.8%	NXP Q4 2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1, Tables 1 and 4 (accession 0001413447-26-000003, filed 2026-02-03): GAAP operating income $3,047M / revenue $12,269M = 24.83%. Includes $261M of restructuring (mostly Q4 2025, $177M, tied to the hybrid-manufacturing move to 300mm and fab consolidation), $151M of purchase-price amortization, $462M of share-based compensation and $143M of 'other incidentals'. Ex restructuring it is 27.0%; NXP's non-GAAP margin was 33.1%. Left as the GAAP line. History, GAAP: FY2022 28.8%, FY2023 27.6%, FY2024 27.1%, FY2025 24.8% — a trough-year print. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income is $2,576M on $6,677M, but Q1 contains a $627M one-off gain on the MEMS sale; ex that gain H1 is $1,949M = 29.2% (Q1 27.6%, Q2 30.6%). The forecast EXCLUDES the gain.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	16% → 8% → 2% → 5% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateFRED DGS10, US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	FRED DGS10, US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo/yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta, read 2026-10-06: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.811, used AS PUBLISHED — not normalized. My reproduction from yfinance monthly prices vs the S&P 500 (59 returns) gives 1.87; the last 36 months alone give 2.28; two years of weekly returns give 1.44. Peers on the same feed: ON 2.05, Infineon ADR 1.91, Microchip 1.76, STMicro 1.48, TI 1.34, ADI 1.23. There is no single event driving it — the window holds the 2022 drawdown, the 2024-25 auto correction and a 2026 swing from ~$193 (early April) to ~$340 and back to the low $240s — which is what a cyclical auto-chip equity does. Normalizing down would be a GENEROUS judgement without an event to point to. This is the largest lever in the model: beta 1.5 gives ~$123, beta 1.2 ~$149.	1.81	Yahoo/yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta, read 2026-10-06: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.811, used AS PUBLISHED — not normalized. My reproduction from yfinance monthly prices vs the S&P 500 (59 returns) gives 1.87; the last 36 months alone give 2.28; two years of weekly returns give 1.44. Peers on the same feed: ON 2.05, Infineon ADR 1.91, Microchip 1.76, STMicro 1.48, TI 1.34, ADI 1.23. There is no single event driving it — the window holds the 2022 drawdown, the 2024-25 auto correction and a 2026 swing from ~$193 (early April) to ~$340 and back to the low $240s — which is what a cyclical auto-chip equity does. Normalizing down would be a GENEROUS judgement without an event to point to. This is the largest lever in the model: beta 1.5 gives ~$123, beta 1.2 ~$149.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (~long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Fair for NXP: semiconductor content per vehicle and per factory keeps rising (radar, zonal/software-defined architectures, electrification, edge AI), but light-vehicle units grow slowly, and chips deflate per function. Well below the ~12.9% WACC. 3.0% adds ~$4.8/share.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (~long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Fair for NXP: semiconductor content per vehicle and per factory keeps rising (radar, zonal/software-defined architectures, electrification, edge AI), but light-vehicle units grow slowly, and chips deflate per function. Well below the ~12.9% WACC. 3.0% adds ~$4.8/share.
Diluted sharesNXP Q2 2026 earnings release, Table 1 and Q3 guidance (accession 0001413447-26-000044): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 254.021M (basic 252.415M); NXP's Q3 2026 guidance also uses 254.0M. Was 254.3M for FY2025 and 257.8M for FY2024 — buybacks ($899M in FY2025, $206M in H1 2026, ~$1.4B left on the program) roughly offset equity-plan issuance. Diluted count is how this model carries SBC dilution.	254M	NXP Q2 2026 earnings release, Table 1 and Q3 guidance (accession 0001413447-26-000044): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 254.021M (basic 252.415M); NXP's Q3 2026 guidance also uses 254.0M. Was 254.3M for FY2025 and 257.8M for FY2024 — buybacks ($899M in FY2025, $206M in H1 2026, ~$1.4B left on the program) roughly offset equity-plan issuance. Diluted count is how this model carries SBC dilution.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC	$229.33	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC

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What does NXP Semiconductors N.V. do?

What does it do?

NXP Semiconductors N.V. provides semiconductor products in the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Netherlands, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates in the Semiconductors industry (Technology sector), headquartered in Netherlands. The company employs roughly 32,169 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $13.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $30 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 30.4%), after a 56% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 22.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.9× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.0× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at NXPI filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for NXP Semiconductors N.V.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
1 Oct 2026	Jensen Christopher L	EVP, Chief People Officer	Open-market sale	$805,200.00	Form 4 for Jensen Christopher L (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Micallef Andrew	EVP, Chief Operations Officer	Open-market sale	$226,040.00	Form 4 for Micallef Andrew (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Jun 2026	Micallef Andrew	EVP, Chief Operations Officer	Open-market sale	$315,570.00	Form 4 for Micallef Andrew (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Jun 2026	Foxx Anthony R	Director	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Foxx Anthony R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Jun 2026	Foxx Anthony R	Director	Shares withheld (tax)	$152,571.33	Form 4 for Foxx Anthony R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Jun 2026	Staiblin Jasmin	Director	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Staiblin Jasmin (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is NXPI's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) between $100.34 and $482.21 per share, versus a market price of $229.33. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is NXPI overvalued or undervalued?
At $229.33 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call NXPI overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NXPI?
A WACC of 12.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is NXP Semiconductors stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is $100.34 – $482.21 against a market price of $229.33. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is $100.34 – $482.21, built on a 12.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into NXP Semiconductors stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $229.33. A model estimate, not investment advice.
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI): Jensen Christopher L, EVP, Chief People Officer, open-market sale on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.