PHM · Intrinsic value
Is PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) overvalued or undervalued?
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) trades at the delayed market price of $111.50 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of −0.5% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $112.50 a share (priced within our range of $83.68 – $143.65). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is PHM fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $112.50
- Market price
- $111.50
- Upside to fair value
- +0.9%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $83.68 – $143.65
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −0.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes −2.9% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is PHM's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.
- Value · 72 of 100
Cheaper than 72% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 51 of 100
- Quality · 52 of 100
More profitable than 52% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 85 of 100
Financially stronger than 85% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 13 of 100
Growing faster than 13% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 26 of 100
Outperformed 26% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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PHM DCF valuation, input by input
At a recent price of $111.50, PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) trades roughly at TickerWorth's blended fair value of $112.50 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices PHM in line with our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +0.9% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values PHM at about $101.08 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts PulteGroup, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 68% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -0.5% annual revenue growth for PHM. Our base case instead compounds to about -2.9% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, PHM's modeled DCF value ranges from about $78.22 to $144.76 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what PulteGroup, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of PHM's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind PHM's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $16,407,080,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 15.7% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | -10% → -6% → -3% → 1% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.20 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 190M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:43 UTC | $111.50 |
Change PHM's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does PulteGroup, Inc. do?
What does it do?
PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. The company is involved in the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes, as well as construction of housing; and sale of single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brands. It operates in the Residential Construction industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 6,506 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $17.3B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $16 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 15.7%), after a 26% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 11.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.2× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (7.3× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at PHM filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLAIR BRYCE | Director | Gift | — | Form 4 for BLAIR BRYCE (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| BLAIR BRYCE | Director | Gift | — | Form 4 for BLAIR BRYCE (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HENRY KEVIN A | EVP and Chief People Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $263,749.40 | Form 4 for HENRY KEVIN A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Koart Matthew William | Exec. VP & COO | Open-market sale | $894,840.00 | Form 4 for Koart Matthew William (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Koart Matthew William | Exec. VP & COO | Shares withheld (tax) | $766,853.97 | Form 4 for Koart Matthew William (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Snyder Lila | Director | Open-market sale | $391,264.02 | Form 4 for Snyder Lila (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is PHM's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is $112.50 per share, versus a market price of $111.50 (roughly at fair value).
Is PHM overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value PHM looks in line with fair value at $111.50. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for PHM?
A WACC of 10.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is PulteGroup stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is $112.50 against a market price of $111.50. Our read: Priced within our range of $83.68 – $143.65. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
PulteGroup (PHM) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is $112.50, built on a 10.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into PulteGroup stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −0.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes −2.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $111.50. A model estimate, not investment advice.
PulteGroup (PHM) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM): BLAIR BRYCE, Director, gift on 2026-07-30. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
How does PHM compare with its peers?
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.