TOL · Intrinsic value
Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) overvalued or undervalued?
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) trades at the delayed market price of $132.25 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 1.1% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $143.07 a share (priced within our range of $106.33 – $172.38). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is TOL fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $143.07
- Market price
- $132.25
- Upside to fair value
- +8.2%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $106.33 – $172.38
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 1.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is TOL's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.
- Value · 73 of 100
Cheaper than 73% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 57 of 100
- Quality · 50 of 100
More profitable than 50% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 76 of 100
Financially stronger than 76% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 13 of 100
Growing faster than 13% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 35 of 100
Outperformed 35% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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TOL DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is $143.07 a share, against the delayed market price of $132.25 (priced within our range of $106.33 – $172.38). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values TOL at about $136.60 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Toll Brothers, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 68% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 1.1% annual revenue growth for TOL. Our base case instead compounds to about 1.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TOL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $103.15 to $200.98 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Toll Brothers, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TOL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind TOL's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueToll Brothers, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000794170-25-000112): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $10,966,720,000 |
| Base EBIT marginToll Brothers, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000794170-25-000112): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,720,614,000 / revenue 10,966,723,000 = 15.69%, FY2025. | 15.7% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | -2% → -0% → 1% → 3% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.30 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesToll Brothers, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000794170-25-000112): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 99,779,000 shares, FY2025. | 100M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 19:26 UTC | $132.25 |
Change TOL's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Toll Brothers, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. It operates in the Residential Construction industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 4,900 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $11.0B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $15 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 14.6%), after a 25% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 11.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.3× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (4.5× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at TOL filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Stephen F. | Director | Open-market sale | $108,792.00 | Form 4 for East Stephen F. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Parahus Robert | President & COO | Open-market sale | $1,122,450.00 | Form 4 for Parahus Robert (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | Director, Executive Chairman | Option exercise | $2,464,220.77 | Form 4 for Yearley Douglas C. Jr. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | Director, Executive Chairman | Open-market sale | $12,206,374.53 | Form 4 for Yearley Douglas C. Jr. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| East Stephen F. | Director | Open-market sale | $139,700.00 | Form 4 for East Stephen F. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| McLean John A | Director | Option exercise | $73,113.93 | Form 4 for McLean John A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is TOL's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is $143.07 per share, versus a market price of $132.25 (priced within our range of $106.33 – $172.38).
Is TOL overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $106.33 – $172.38 at $132.25. We don't call TOL overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for TOL?
A WACC of 10.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Toll Brothers stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is $143.07 against a market price of $132.25. Our read: Priced within our range of $106.33 – $172.38. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Toll Brothers (TOL) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is $143.07, built on a 10.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Toll Brothers stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 1.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $132.25. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Toll Brothers (TOL) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL): East Stephen F., Director, open-market sale on 2026-09-24. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
How does TOL compare with its peers?
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.