What is SMCI's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) between $20.82 and $99.53 per share, versus a market price of $31.63. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is SMCI overvalued or undervalued?

At $31.63 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call SMCI overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for SMCI?

A WACC of 13.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Super Micro Computer stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is $20.82 – $99.53 against a market price of $31.63. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is $20.82 – $99.53, built on a 13.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Super Micro Computer stock?

no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $31.63. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI): Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara, Director, 10% owner, open-market sale on 2026-10-07. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

SMCI · Intrinsic value

Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) at $20.82 – $99.53, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $31.63 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full SMCI analysis

What is SMCI worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $20.82 – $99.53
Market price: $31.63
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 12:56 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics

What is SMCI's TickerWorth Score?

A63/100

Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.

Value · 73 of 100
Cheaper than 73% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 98 of 100
Quality · 38 of 100
More profitable than 38% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 55 of 100
Financially stronger than 55% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 73 of 100
Growing faster than 73% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 32 of 100
Outperformed 32% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 12:56 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

TERMINAL VALUE IS ~95% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — far above the 75% danger line. This is a mechanical result of Year 1 free cash flow being deeply negative (-$5.3B) while the business grows into its guidance: the five explicit years contribute only ~$0.9B of present value in total. Read this as a valuation of the steady state SMCI reaches after the build, not of the forecast years.
MODEL YEAR-1 FCF DIFFERS FROM THE LAST REPORTED FCF BY MORE THAN 20%: -$5,293M modeled for FY2027 vs -$6,972M reported for FY2026. Both are negative for the same reason (working-capital build on fast growth); the modeled drain is smaller because FY2027's revenue increment ($29.5B) times 30% is less than FY2026's actual ~56% working-capital intensity.
THE BASE YEAR CONTAINS ONE UNUSUAL QUARTER. Q4 FY2026's 13.4% operating margin (17.5% gross) lifted the full-year margin to 7.09% from 3.6-6.1% in Q1-Q3. The forecast does NOT extend it: Year 1 is 7.0%, backed out of the Q1 FY2027 EPS guide, fading to 6.5%. If the Q4 mix proves repeatable, this model is too low — holding 7.0% flat adds $3.39/share; reaching the market price needs ~9.7%.
ENGINE QUIRK, CONSERVATIVE: the terminal value capitalizes Year 5 free cash flow, which carries working-capital investment for 4% growth rather than the 2.5% terminal rate. With 30% working-capital intensity that understates value by about $2/share. It is disclosed rather than hidden by flattening Year 5 growth.
BETA IS HIGH AND UNNORMALIZED (1.996, cost of equity 15.2%, WACC 13.30%). This is the single biggest difference from the treatment of other AI-hardware names in this tracker, several of which were normalized down to ~1.5-1.6. Normalizing SMCI to 1.6 would add ~$6/share. Measured betas (60/36/120-month) do not support normalizing.
SHARE COUNT WILL RISE FURTHER. The $1.25B at-the-market program could add ~29M shares at today's price, and preferred dividends may be paid in shares. Neither is in the 805.4M count. Equity awards are held at Q4's 17.7M treasury-method figure; a higher share price would add a few million more.
CUSTOMER CONCENTRATION: one customer was 28.1% of FY2026 net sales (four customers each >10% in FY2025). Non-cancelable purchase commitments were $34.2B at 2026-06-30 — if a large order slips or is cancelled, SMCI is left holding components bought for it.
SBC of $412.1M (1.05% of revenue) stays expensed inside GAAP EBIT; dilution is captured through the share count. Non-GAAP figures in the earnings release add it back; this model does not.

Why SMCI gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $31.63, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $20.82 and $99.53 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 13.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 95% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is unusually high — most of the answer comes from a single assumption about the far future, so treat this figure as low-confidence and lean on the multiples alongside it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SMCI's modeled DCF value ranges from about $15.05 to $30.11 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Super Micro Computer, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SMCI's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind SMCI's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueSuper Micro Computer FY2026 10-K (accession 0001375365-26-000022, filed 2026-08-31): Net sales $39,063.1M, +77.8% on FY2025's $21,972.0M (FY2024 $14,989.2M). FILED ON TIME: fiscal year ends 2026-06-30, the 60-day large-accelerated-filer deadline fell on Saturday 2026-08-29, so Monday 2026-08-31 is the deadline day, and no NT 10-K appears in the EDGAR filing list. That matters for SMCI specifically — its FY2024 10-K was filed late, after EY resigned as auditor; BDO USA (appointed 2024-11-18) audited FY2026 and gave an unqualified opinion on the statements. The audited figure is IDENTICAL to the unaudited $39,063,072K in the 2026-08-11 earnings release (8-K Ex-99.1, accession 0001375365-26-000021), so nothing moved between the preliminary and final numbers. THE QUARTERS ARE VERY LUMPY: Q1 $5,017.8M, Q2 $12,682.5M, Q3 $10,243.0M, Q4 $11,119.8M (XBRL, 10-Qs and 10-K). One customer was 28.1% of FY2026 net sales.	$39,063,100,000	Super Micro Computer FY2026 10-K (accession 0001375365-26-000022, filed 2026-08-31): Net sales $39,063.1M, +77.8% on FY2025's $21,972.0M (FY2024 $14,989.2M). FILED ON TIME: fiscal year ends 2026-06-30, the 60-day large-accelerated-filer deadline fell on Saturday 2026-08-29, so Monday 2026-08-31 is the deadline day, and no NT 10-K appears in the EDGAR filing list. That matters for SMCI specifically — its FY2024 10-K was filed late, after EY resigned as auditor; BDO USA (appointed 2024-11-18) audited FY2026 and gave an unqualified opinion on the statements. The audited figure is IDENTICAL to the unaudited $39,063,072K in the 2026-08-11 earnings release (8-K Ex-99.1, accession 0001375365-26-000021), so nothing moved between the preliminary and final numbers. THE QUARTERS ARE VERY LUMPY: Q1 $5,017.8M, Q2 $12,682.5M, Q3 $10,243.0M, Q4 $11,119.8M (XBRL, 10-Qs and 10-K). One customer was 28.1% of FY2026 net sales.
Base EBIT marginSuper Micro Computer FY2026 10-K (accession 0001375365-26-000022, filed 2026-08-31): GAAP income from operations $2,770.5M / net sales $39,063.1M = 7.09%. Includes $412.1M of stock-based compensation (expensed, not added back) and excludes interest income ($186.9M, captured through cash in the net-debt bridge), interest expense ($194.6M) and $26.5M of other income (which includes $39.7M of data-centre sublease income — excluded because the lease liability is likewise kept out of net debt). THE ANNUAL FIGURE HIDES A STEEP INTRA-YEAR SHAPE: quarterly operating margin ran 3.6% (Q1), 3.7% (Q2), 6.1% (Q3) and 13.4% (Q4). Q4 was lifted by a 17.5% gross margin against 9.9% in Q3 and the company's own 8.2-8.4% Q4 guide, which management attributed to 'favorable customer and product mix' (preliminary update, 8-K 2026-07-21). History for context: FY2023 10.7%, FY2024 8.1%, FY2025 5.7%, FY2026 7.1%. Full-year gross margin fell to 10.8% from 11.1%, which the 10-K attributes to 'competitive pricing to gain market share'.	7.1%	Super Micro Computer FY2026 10-K (accession 0001375365-26-000022, filed 2026-08-31): GAAP income from operations $2,770.5M / net sales $39,063.1M = 7.09%. Includes $412.1M of stock-based compensation (expensed, not added back) and excludes interest income ($186.9M, captured through cash in the net-debt bridge), interest expense ($194.6M) and $26.5M of other income (which includes $39.7M of data-centre sublease income — excluded because the lease liability is likewise kept out of net debt). THE ANNUAL FIGURE HIDES A STEEP INTRA-YEAR SHAPE: quarterly operating margin ran 3.6% (Q1), 3.7% (Q2), 6.1% (Q3) and 13.4% (Q4). Q4 was lifted by a 17.5% gross margin against 9.9% in Q3 and the company's own 8.2-8.4% Q4 guide, which management attributed to 'favorable customer and product mix' (preliminary update, 8-K 2026-07-21). History for context: FY2023 10.7%, FY2024 8.1%, FY2025 5.7%, FY2026 7.1%. Full-year gross margin fell to 10.8% from 11.1%, which the 10-K attributes to 'competitive pricing to gain market share'.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	75% → 15% → 10% → 6% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateFRED DGS10 — US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	FRED DGS10 — US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance / yfinance 5Y-monthly beta, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.996, used AS PUBLISHED — no normalization. Checked rather than assumed: my own regression of yfinance monthly returns against the S&P 500 gives 2.12 (60 months), 3.56 (36 months) and 1.73 (120 months); dropping the Aug-2024-Feb-2025 auditor-resignation months RAISES it to 2.26, so the figure is not an artefact of SMCI's company-specific crisis. Peers on the same method: Dell 1.41, HPE 1.44 (60 months). Other AI-hardware names in this tracker were normalized down to ~1.5-1.6 (AMD, MU, STX, WDC); doing the same here would be GENEROUS and would add ~$6/share (1.6 -> $26.85), still far below the price. I did not, because every window I measured says SMCI is a 1.7-3.5 beta stock: a 6-7%-margin business with one 28% customer and live federal investigations is genuinely more exposed to the AI-capex cycle than the platforms it assembles.	2.00	Yahoo Finance / yfinance 5Y-monthly beta, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.996, used AS PUBLISHED — no normalization. Checked rather than assumed: my own regression of yfinance monthly returns against the S&P 500 gives 2.12 (60 months), 3.56 (36 months) and 1.73 (120 months); dropping the Aug-2024-Feb-2025 auditor-resignation months RAISES it to 2.26, so the figure is not an artefact of SMCI's company-specific crisis. Peers on the same method: Dell 1.41, HPE 1.44 (60 months). Other AI-hardware names in this tracker were normalized down to ~1.5-1.6 (AMD, MU, STX, WDC); doing the same here would be GENEROUS and would add ~$6/share (1.6 -> $26.85), still far below the price. I did not, because every window I measured says SMCI is a 1.7-3.5 beta stock: a 6-7%-margin business with one 28% customer and live federal investigations is genuinely more exposed to the AI-capex cycle than the platforms it assembles.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Well below the 13.30% WACC. 3.0% adds ~$1.19/share.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Well below the 13.30% WACC. 3.0% adds ~$1.19/share.
Diluted sharesESTIMATEAssumption — Super Micro Computer FY2026 10-K: cover page share count, Note 5 (EPS), Note 9 (convertible notes), Note 13 (mandatory convertible preferred); Q4 release (accession 0001375365-26-000021): BUILT, not copied, because the GAAP diluted count gets SMCI's two convertible instruments backwards for a valuation. Starting point Q4 FY2026 weighted diluted 705.0M (basic 613.5M). (1) REMOVE 73.8M if-converted shares for the convertible notes: GAAP counts them, but conversion prices are $55.20 (2030), $61.06 (2028) and $83.44 (2029) against a $43.69 price, so the economic claim is the $4,725M of principal, which IS in net debt — keeping both would charge the same holders twice. (2) ADD 43.5M to reflect the full June offering (52.27M shares issued June 10-18 were only ~10 days in the Q4 weighting; 656,965,384 shares were outstanding at 2026-07-31 vs 613.5M Q4 weighted basic). (3) ADD 130.7M shares for the 7.00% Series A MANDATORY convertible preferred, which GAAP leaves out of the diluted count (it is a two-class 'participating security'): 4,312,500 preferred shares convert by 2029-06-01 at between 30.3040 and 36.3640 common shares each; at any price above the $32.9989 threshold the minimum rate applies, so 4,312,500 x 30.3040 = 130.7M. It is mandatory — it becomes common stock — so it is counted as shares, with its remaining dividends carried in net debt. Result: 705.0 - 73.8 + 43.5 + 130.7 = 805.4M (equity awards held at Q4's 17.7M treasury-method figure). NOT INCLUDED: any shares sold since July under the $1.25B at-the-market program (sales permitted from July 2026; none sold by 2026-06-30) — the Q1 FY2027 10-Q will show it. If the notes are ALSO counted as shares (GAAP's way) the value falls to $19.07.	805M	ESTIMATEAssumption — Super Micro Computer FY2026 10-K: cover page share count, Note 5 (EPS), Note 9 (convertible notes), Note 13 (mandatory convertible preferred); Q4 release (accession 0001375365-26-000021): BUILT, not copied, because the GAAP diluted count gets SMCI's two convertible instruments backwards for a valuation. Starting point Q4 FY2026 weighted diluted 705.0M (basic 613.5M). (1) REMOVE 73.8M if-converted shares for the convertible notes: GAAP counts them, but conversion prices are $55.20 (2030), $61.06 (2028) and $83.44 (2029) against a $43.69 price, so the economic claim is the $4,725M of principal, which IS in net debt — keeping both would charge the same holders twice. (2) ADD 43.5M to reflect the full June offering (52.27M shares issued June 10-18 were only ~10 days in the Q4 weighting; 656,965,384 shares were outstanding at 2026-07-31 vs 613.5M Q4 weighted basic). (3) ADD 130.7M shares for the 7.00% Series A MANDATORY convertible preferred, which GAAP leaves out of the diluted count (it is a two-class 'participating security'): 4,312,500 preferred shares convert by 2029-06-01 at between 30.3040 and 36.3640 common shares each; at any price above the $32.9989 threshold the minimum rate applies, so 4,312,500 x 30.3040 = 130.7M. It is mandatory — it becomes common stock — so it is counted as shares, with its remaining dividends carried in net debt. Result: 705.0 - 73.8 + 43.5 + 130.7 = 805.4M (equity awards held at Q4's 17.7M treasury-method figure). NOT INCLUDED: any shares sold since July under the $1.25B at-the-market program (sales permitted from July 2026; none sold by 2026-06-30) — the Q1 FY2027 10-Q will show it. If the notes are ALSO counted as shares (GAAP's way) the value falls to $19.07.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:56 UTC	$31.63	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:56 UTC

Change SMCI's assumptions

The discount-rate dial and the editable model

Pro

Change growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).

Start free trial Try it on Apple

What does Super Micro Computer, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Super Micro Computer designs and sells server and storage systems for data centers, including AI servers with GPUs, blade systems, storage solutions, workstations, and networking devices. The company operates globally with 7,000 employees and also provides server management software.

How does it make money?

The company generates revenue by selling modular server and storage hardware to customers worldwide. In its trailing twelve months, Super Micro recorded $39.1 billion in total revenue with a gross margin of 10.8%, an operating margin of 13.4%, and a net profit margin of 5.7%.

Is it financially healthy?

Super Micro shows solid financial health with a current ratio of 3.87, indicating it has $3.87 in current assets for every $1 of current liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.64, meaning debt represents 64% of shareholder equity, which is moderate leverage.

Who at SMCI filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
7 Oct 2026	Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara	Director, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$4,502,000.00	Form 4 for Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
7 Oct 2026	Liang Charles	Director, President and CEO, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$4,502,000.00	Form 4 for Liang Charles (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
4 Sept 2026	Liang Charles	Director, President and CEO, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$4,000,000.00	Form 4 for Liang Charles (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
4 Sept 2026	Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara	Director, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$4,000,000.00	Form 4 for Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
3 Sept 2026	Liang Charles	Director, President and CEO, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$1,557,879.00	Form 4 for Liang Charles (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
3 Sept 2026	Liang Charles	Director, President and CEO, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$2,160,704.70	Form 4 for Liang Charles (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is SMCI's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) between $20.82 and $99.53 per share, versus a market price of $31.63. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is SMCI overvalued or undervalued?
At $31.63 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call SMCI overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SMCI?
A WACC of 13.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Super Micro Computer stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is $20.82 – $99.53 against a market price of $31.63. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is $20.82 – $99.53, built on a 13.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Super Micro Computer stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $31.63. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI): Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara, Director, 10% owner, open-market sale on 2026-10-07. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.