STX · Intrinsic value
Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $298.86 – $298.86 for Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX), against the delayed market price of $660.81: priced above our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate; every input is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is STX worth?
- Fair-value range
- $298.86 – $298.86
- A range by design: peer multiples — our researched DCF held out as mid-cycle.
- Market price
- $660.81
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced above our range
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the range above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is STX's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 23 of 100
Cheaper than 23% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 6 of 100
- Quality · 78 of 100
More profitable than 78% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 35 of 100
Financially stronger than 35% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 86 of 100
Growing faster than 86% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 66 of 100
Outperformed 66% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
Why STX gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $660.81, Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $298.86 and $298.86 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples — our researched DCF held out as mid-cycle): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Seagate Technology Holdings plc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 63% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — STX would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 5.8% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, STX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $91.77 to $151.78 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Seagate Technology Holdings plc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of STX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind STX's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueSeagate FY2026 10-K (SEC EDGAR companyfacts): Rev $12,195M, op income $4,094M (33.6%). Period 2025-06-28..2026-07-03. | $12,195,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginSeagate FY2026 10-K (SEC EDGAR companyfacts): op income 4,094 / revenue 12,195 = 33.6% | 33.6% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 12% → 5% → 4% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateUS 10Y govt bond: US 10Y CMT | 4.6% |
| BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate: Published beta ~2.07 (melt-up-inflated); normalized to 1.50 (through-cycle). GENEROUS. | 1.50 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: long-run nominal growth in USD; must be < WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesSeagate FY2026 10-K (SEC EDGAR companyfacts): weighted-average diluted shares, FY2026: 229M | 229M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 21:02 UTC | $660.81 |
Change STX's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Seagate Technology Holdings plc do?
What does it do?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in providing data storage solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers External and internal hard drives; external and internal solid-state drives (SSDs); enterprise hard drives and SSDs; data storage systems; network attached storage (NAS) hard drives; video and analytics hard drives; and hyperscale and cloud solution. It operates in the Computer Hardware industry (Technology sector), headquartered in Singapore. The company employs roughly 30,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $12.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $43 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 43.1%), after a 46% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 26.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries moderate debt (1.8× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.7× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at STX filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOSLEY WILLIAM D | Director, CEO | Open-market sale | $334,443.20 | Form 4 for MOSLEY WILLIAM D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MOSLEY WILLIAM D | Director, CEO | Open-market sale | $795,178.56 | Form 4 for MOSLEY WILLIAM D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MOSLEY WILLIAM D | Director, CEO | Open-market sale | $1,550,105.01 | Form 4 for MOSLEY WILLIAM D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MOSLEY WILLIAM D | Director, CEO | Open-market sale | $1,230,288.58 | Form 4 for MOSLEY WILLIAM D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MOSLEY WILLIAM D | Director, CEO | Open-market sale | $783,952.01 | Form 4 for MOSLEY WILLIAM D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| MOSLEY WILLIAM D | Director, CEO | Open-market sale | $768,036.77 | Form 4 for MOSLEY WILLIAM D (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is STX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) between $298.86 and $298.86 per share, versus a market price of $660.81. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples — our researched DCF held out as mid-cycle): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is STX overvalued or undervalued?
At $660.81 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call STX overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for STX?
A WACC of 11.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Seagate Technology stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is $298.86 – $298.86 against a market price of $660.81. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Seagate Technology (STX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is $298.86 – $298.86, built on a 11.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Seagate Technology stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $660.81. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Seagate Technology (STX) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX): MOSLEY WILLIAM D, Director, CEO, open-market sale on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
People who read STX also read
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.