TM · Intrinsic value
Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) at $93.53 – $451.30, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $194.47 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is TM worth?
- Fair-value range
- $93.53 – $451.30
- Market price
- $194.47
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −5.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.4% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is TM's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 50 of 100
Cheaper than 50% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 36 of 100
More profitable than 36% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 39 of 100
Financially stronger than 39% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 50 of 100
Growing faster than 50% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 56 of 100
Outperformed 56% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why TM gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $194.47, Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $93.53 and $451.30 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Toyota Motor Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 84% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -5.2% annual revenue growth for TM. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.4% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TM's modeled DCF value ranges from about $218.49 to $1,627 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Toyota Motor Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TM's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind TM's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueTOYOTA MOTOR CORP/ FY2025 20-F (accession 0001193125-25-142326): ifrs-full:Revenue, FY2025 full year. | $303,286,930,000 |
| Base EBIT marginTOYOTA MOTOR CORP/ FY2025 20-F (accession 0001193125-25-142326): ifrs-full:ProfitLossFromOperatingActivities 4,795,586,000,000 / revenue 48,036,704,000,000 = 9.98%, FY2025. | 10.0% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 9% → 8% → 6% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.40 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 1,178M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:53 UTC | $194.47 |
Change TM's assumptions
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What does Toyota Motor Corporation do?
What does it do?
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. It operates in the Auto Manufacturers industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in Japan. The company employs roughly 367,990 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $52.0T in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $8 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 7.9%), after a 17% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 8.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.1× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
TM insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Toyota Motor Corporation. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is TM's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) between $93.53 and $451.30 per share, versus a market price of $194.47. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is TM overvalued or undervalued?
At $194.47 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call TM overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for TM?
A WACC of 6.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Toyota Motor stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is $93.53 – $451.30 against a market price of $194.47. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Toyota Motor (TM) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is $93.53 – $451.30, built on a 6.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Toyota Motor stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −5.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.4% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $194.47. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Toyota Motor (TM) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Toyota Motor Corporation (TM). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
How does TM compare with its peers?
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Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.