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Is T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) overvalued or undervalued?

Updated Sep 3, 2026 · researched from SEC filings · educational, not advice

Fair value
$124.61
Market price
$187.30
Downside to fair value
33.5%
Verdict
33% above fair value

Test the assumptions — move the discount rate

The DCF value below is a real engine result at each WACC (not a re-estimate). Drag to see how sensitive TMUS's DCF is to the discount rate.

Market price: $187.30

At a recent price of $187.30, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) trades 33% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $124.61 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices TMUS overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -33.5% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values TMUS at about $350.97 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts T-Mobile US, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 85% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -4.9% annual revenue growth for TMUS. Our base case instead assumes about 6.0% average growth over the forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TMUS's modeled DCF value ranges from about $186.15 to $1,243 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what T-Mobile US, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TMUS's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

The assumptions behind TMUS's DCF

InputValueSource
Base-year revenue$88,309,000,000T-MOBILE US, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001283699-26-000010): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year.
Base EBIT margin20.7%T-MOBILE US, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001283699-26-000010): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 18,279,000,000 / revenue 88,309,000,000 = 20.70%, FY2025.
Forecast revenue growth8% → 7% → 6% → 5% → 4%Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rate4.7%Live feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX)
Beta0.40Live feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5)
Terminal growth2.5%Assumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC
Diluted shares1,131MT-MOBILE US, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001283699-26-000010): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 1,131,076,251 shares, FY2025.
Market price$187.30Delayed quote · as of 2026-09-03 07:22 UTC

Researched from filings: the base year — revenue, operating margin and balance-sheet figures — comes straight from this company's latest SEC 10-K (cached, refreshed periodically). Forward growth and terminal value are still algorithmic estimates; drag the WACC slider to test sensitivity.

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Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.