What is UPS's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) between $37.51 and $246.35 per share, versus a market price of $97.48. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is UPS overvalued or undervalued?

At $97.48 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call UPS overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for UPS?

A WACC of 9.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is United Parcel Service stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is $37.51 – $246.35 against a market price of $97.48. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

United Parcel Service (UPS) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is $37.51 – $246.35, built on a 9.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into United Parcel Service stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 3.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $97.48. A model estimate, not investment advice.

United Parcel Service (UPS) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): Subramanian Bala, Chief Digital & Tech Officer, option exercise on 2026-05-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

UPS · Intrinsic value

Is United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) at $37.51 – $246.35, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $97.48 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full UPS analysis

What is UPS worth?

Fair-value range: $37.51 – $246.35
Market price: $97.48
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 3.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.7% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is UPS's TickerWorth Score?

C51/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Industrials companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.

Value · 77 of 100
Cheaper than 77% of Industrials companies in US
Price vs worth · 68 of 100
Quality · 41 of 100
More profitable than 41% of Industrials companies in US
Financial health · 34 of 100
Financially stronger than 34% of Industrials companies in US
Growth · 33 of 100
Growing faster than 33% of Industrials companies in US
Momentum · 35 of 100
Outperformed 35% of Industrials companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE ANSWER SITS ON TOP OF THE PRICE, SO THE DIRECTION IS NOT THE STORY. The model lands ~4% below the 5 Oct close; beta 1.0 instead of 1.05, or terminal margins 0.3pt higher, closes the whole gap. Read this as 'fairly priced on a credible recovery', not as a short.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~74% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — just under the 75% line; implied exit multiple ~8.1x final-year EBITDA.
YEAR-1 MARGIN IS GUIDANCE-DEPENDENT AND BACK-HALF LOADED. 7.95% requires an H2 2026 GAAP margin of ~10.7% after H1's 5.0%. Q3 2026 (2026-10-27) is the first test.
YEAR-1 FCF (~$6.5B) IS ~18% ABOVE FY2025 REPORTED FCF ($5.47B). Within the 20% threshold but stated: the model does not deduct pension contributions above service cost (2026: $434M + $147M paid in H1, ~$733M more expected) because the deficit they fund is already a $6.0B charge in net debt; and capex is guided down to $3.0B.
PENSION TREATMENT IS A CHOICE. Pre-tax deficit in net debt (as FDX). Tax-effecting it at 23% would add ~$1.60/share; ignoring it (as a feed-driven model typically does) would add ~$7.10.
NOT TREATED AS DEBT: self-insurance reserves (current $1,123M at 6/30, plus a non-current portion) — operating, as in FDX; and $450M of receivables sold under a factoring programme (debt-like, ~$0.50/share).
CAPEX IS A BIG LEVER. 4.6% of revenue (FY2021-25 average) after a $3.0B Year 1. At 5.5% the value falls to ~$76; at 4.3% (equal to D&A) it rises to ~$94. UPS spent 7-9% of revenue in FY2017-2020.
LABOR. Teamsters master agreement expires 2028-07-31; the pilots' (IPA) agreement has been amendable since 2025-09-01; airline mechanics become amendable 2026-11-01 (10-K). None is modeled as a discrete cost step; the margin path stops at ~10% partly for this reason.
SBC is small ($73M in FY2025; $58M in H1 2026) and stays expensed inside GAAP EBIT; no add-back.

Why UPS gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $97.48, United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $37.51 and $246.35 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts United Parcel Service, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 3.2% annual revenue growth for UPS. Our base case instead compounds to about 2.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, UPS's modeled DCF value ranges from about $58.61 to $158.98 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what United Parcel Service, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of UPS's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind UPS's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueUPS FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-008432, filed 2026-02-17): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $88,661M, -2.6% on FY2024's $91,070M. The decline is DELIBERATE: UPS agreed in January 2025 to cut volume from its largest customer, Amazon (10.6% of FY2025 revenue, 11.8% in FY2024), by more than 50% from 2024 levels, and insourced SurePost. FY2025 also includes only a stub of Andlauer Healthcare Group (acquired Q4 2025; aggregate 2025 acquisitions ~$2.0B net of cash, impact on 2025 revenue 'not material' per Note 8). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $44,036M, +3.0% YoY (Q2 +7.6%), per the 2Q 2026 release — the glide-down completed in June 2026 and growth has resumed, mostly on revenue per piece (+11.3% in Q2) against volume -3.7%.	$88,661,000,000	UPS FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-008432, filed 2026-02-17): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $88,661M, -2.6% on FY2024's $91,070M. The decline is DELIBERATE: UPS agreed in January 2025 to cut volume from its largest customer, Amazon (10.6% of FY2025 revenue, 11.8% in FY2024), by more than 50% from 2024 levels, and insourced SurePost. FY2025 also includes only a stub of Andlauer Healthcare Group (acquired Q4 2025; aggregate 2025 acquisitions ~$2.0B net of cash, impact on 2025 revenue 'not material' per Note 8). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $44,036M, +3.0% YoY (Q2 +7.6%), per the 2Q 2026 release — the glide-down completed in June 2026 and growth has resumed, mostly on revenue per piece (+11.3% in Q2) against volume -3.7%.
Base EBIT marginUPS FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-008432, filed 2026-02-17): GAAP operating profit $7,867M / $88,661M = 8.87%. GAAP, so it INCLUDES $593M of transformation strategy costs, $182M of goodwill/asset impairments (mostly the MD-11 fleet write-off) and a $19M divestiture loss; UPS's adjusted margin was 9.8% ($8.7B). Kept GAAP, as in the FDX model, because UPS has booked transformation costs every year (FY2024 $322M, FY2025 $593M, FY2026 guided $1.3-1.5B). EXCLUDES 'other pension income', which sits below operating profit (non-service pension cost and UPS's year-end mark-to-market) — pension service cost stays inside this margin. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP margin was 5.0% (adjusted 7.8%), depressed by $1,227M of transformation costs, mostly the Driver Choice voluntary separation program.	8.9%	UPS FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-008432, filed 2026-02-17): GAAP operating profit $7,867M / $88,661M = 8.87%. GAAP, so it INCLUDES $593M of transformation strategy costs, $182M of goodwill/asset impairments (mostly the MD-11 fleet write-off) and a $19M divestiture loss; UPS's adjusted margin was 9.8% ($8.7B). Kept GAAP, as in the FDX model, because UPS has booked transformation costs every year (FY2024 $322M, FY2025 $593M, FY2026 guided $1.3-1.5B). EXCLUDES 'other pension income', which sits below operating profit (non-service pension cost and UPS's year-end mark-to-market) — pension service cost stays inside this margin. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP margin was 5.0% (adjusted 7.8%), depressed by $1,227M of transformation costs, mostly the Driver Choice voluntary separation program.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	3% → 2% → 3% → 3% → 2%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.
Betayfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published beta 1.046, used as-is (rounded). Not normalized: unlike FDX (whose history is contaminated by the pre-spin Freight business) UPS's five-year window covers the same company, if one shrinking its largest account. Beta 1.0 gives ~$93/share — almost exactly the price — and 1.1 gives ~$86, so this input alone spans the gap.	1.05	yfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published beta 1.046, used as-is (rounded). Not normalized: unlike FDX (whose history is contaminated by the pre-spin Freight business) UPS's five-year window covers the same company, if one shrinking its largest account. Beta 1.0 gives ~$93/share — almost exactly the price — and 1.1 gives ~$86, so this input alone spans the gap.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (about long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with FDX and every other company in this tracker. Generous against UPS's own record — revenue is below FY2021's $97.3B — so 2.0% (which takes ~$7/share off) is a fair downside. Must stay below WACC of ~9.0%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (about long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with FDX and every other company in this tracker. Generous against UPS's own record — revenue is below FY2021's $97.3B — so 2.0% (which takes ~$7/share off) is a fair downside. Must stay below WACC of ~9.0%.
Diluted sharesUPS Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001628280-26-053249, filed 2026-08-05): Q2 2026 denominator for diluted EPS, 851M (H1 also 851M; FY2025 850M), Class A and Class B combined (equal economic rights). UPS reports it in whole millions. No buybacks in H1 2026 (8.6M shares repurchased in H1 2025).	851M	UPS Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001628280-26-053249, filed 2026-08-05): Q2 2026 denominator for diluted EPS, 851M (H1 also 851M; FY2025 850M), Class A and Class B combined (equal economic rights). UPS reports it in whole millions. No buybacks in H1 2026 (8.6M shares repurchased in H1 2025).
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC	$97.48	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC

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What does United Parcel Service, Inc. do?

What does it do?

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. It operates in the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 460,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $89.9B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $9 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 9.1%), after a 22% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 5.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.9× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at UPS filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for United Parcel Service, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
15 May 2026	Subramanian Bala	Chief Digital & Tech Officer	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Subramanian Bala (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 May 2026	Subramanian Bala	Chief Digital & Tech Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$103,501.06	Form 4 for Subramanian Bala (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 May 2026	Gutmann Kathleen M.	Pres Intl, Healthcare and SCS	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Gutmann Kathleen M. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 May 2026	Gutmann Kathleen M.	Pres Intl, Healthcare and SCS	Shares withheld (tax)	$159,433.96	Form 4 for Gutmann Kathleen M. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 May 2026	Guffey Matthew W	CHF Commercial & Strategy Off	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Guffey Matthew W (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 May 2026	Guffey Matthew W	CHF Commercial & Strategy Off	Shares withheld (tax)	$119,827.42	Form 4 for Guffey Matthew W (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is UPS's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) between $37.51 and $246.35 per share, versus a market price of $97.48. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is UPS overvalued or undervalued?
At $97.48 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call UPS overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for UPS?
A WACC of 9.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is United Parcel Service stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is $37.51 – $246.35 against a market price of $97.48. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
United Parcel Service (UPS) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is $37.51 – $246.35, built on a 9.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into United Parcel Service stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 3.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $97.48. A model estimate, not investment advice.
United Parcel Service (UPS) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): Subramanian Bala, Chief Digital & Tech Officer, option exercise on 2026-05-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.