What is ADBE's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is $306.45 per share, versus a market price of $245.20 (priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28).

Is ADBE overvalued or undervalued?

Priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28 at $245.20. We don't call ADBE overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for ADBE?

A WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Adobe stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is $306.45 against a market price of $245.20. Our read: Priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Adobe (ADBE) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is $306.45, built on a 11.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Adobe stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $245.20. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Adobe (ADBE) insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Adobe Inc. (ADBE). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

ADBE · Intrinsic value

Is Adobe Inc. (ADBE) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Adobe Inc. (ADBE) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) trades at the delayed market price of $245.20 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 9.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $306.45 a share (priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full ADBE analysis

Is ADBE fairly valued?

Fair value: $306.45
Market price: $245.20
Upside to fair value: +25.0%
Verdict: Priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: Priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.7% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is ADBE's TickerWorth Score?

B61/100

Scores higher than most companies we compare it with

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.

Value · 73 of 100
Cheaper than 73% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 70 of 100
Quality · 90 of 100
More profitable than 90% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 40 of 100
Financially stronger than 40% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 31 of 100
Growing faster than 31% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 33 of 100
Outperformed 33% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE AI CALL IS THE MODEL. Years 2-5 assume generative AI is a slow net headwind: revenue growth fades 8.5% → 5% and GAAP margin from 35% to 34%. Nothing in Adobe's reported numbers yet shows decline — subscription revenue is +13.7% — but organic ARR growth is decelerating (~11.5% FY2025 to an implied ~8.3% FY2026 exit) and RPO has been flat for nine months. A bear path (growth 6/4/3/2.5%, margin falling to 31%) gives ~$190; a bull path (10/9/8/7%, margin rising to 37%) ~$253.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~24% BELOW THE LAST REPORTED FCF ($7.45B modeled vs $9,852M OCF-less-capex for FY2025, and $10.6B TTM) — past the 20% line, so stated. It decomposes: ~$2.0-2.1B is stock-based compensation, which reported OCF adds back and this model keeps as an expense, plus the deferred-revenue inflow ($771M in FY2025) that the model's zero working-capital assumption does not credit. Applied to FY2025 itself, the model's treatment gives ~$7.0B. Deliberate, not a forecast error.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~66% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — below the 75% danger line, because a high WACC (11.84%) pulls weight into the explicit years.
BETA IS WINDOW-SENSITIVE. The published 1.417 (5Y monthly) is used; the 3Y monthly beta is 1.25 and the 2Y weekly 0.98. Those would put the value at ~$244 and ~$287. The house rule anchors on the published figure; the model is conservative because of it.
SBC is expensed inside GAAP EBIT ($1,942M in FY2025; ~8.3% of FY2026 revenue per the guided reconciliation) and not added back; dilution is captured through the diluted share count, which is falling because buybacks exceed issuance.
FY2026 GAAP tax guidance (22.5%) is elevated by a 3.0-point SBC shortfall tied to the stock's decline; the model's 20% assumes that partly normalizes. Using 22.5% would lower the value ~$7/share.

ADBE DCF valuation, input by input

TickerWorth's fair value for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is $306.45 a share, against the delayed market price of $245.20 (priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values ADBE at about $223.36 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Adobe Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 66% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 9.6% annual revenue growth for ADBE. Our base case instead compounds to about 7.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ADBE's modeled DCF value ranges from about $180.54 to $296.90 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Adobe Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ADBE's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind ADBE's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueAdobe FY2025 10-K (accession 0000796343-26-000003, filed 2026-01-15), fiscal year ended 2025-11-28: us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 = $23,769M, +10.5% on FY2024's $21,505M (subscription $22,904M = 96% of revenue; product $325M and services $540M both shrinking). UNCHANGED as the base — the DCF grows this by forecast.revenue_growth, so FY2026 belongs in Year 1. CROSS-CHECK: 9M FY2026 revenue was $19,776M, +12.5% on 9M FY2025's $17,575M (Q3 8-K Ex-99.1); TTM through 2026-08-28 = $25,970M. Of the 9M growth, ~1 point is the Semrush acquisition (closed 2026-04-28; ~$40M of Q2 subscription revenue per the Q2 release).	$23,769,000,000	Adobe FY2025 10-K (accession 0000796343-26-000003, filed 2026-01-15), fiscal year ended 2025-11-28: us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 = $23,769M, +10.5% on FY2024's $21,505M (subscription $22,904M = 96% of revenue; product $325M and services $540M both shrinking). UNCHANGED as the base — the DCF grows this by forecast.revenue_growth, so FY2026 belongs in Year 1. CROSS-CHECK: 9M FY2026 revenue was $19,776M, +12.5% on 9M FY2025's $17,575M (Q3 8-K Ex-99.1); TTM through 2026-08-28 = $25,970M. Of the 9M growth, ~1 point is the Semrush acquisition (closed 2026-04-28; ~$40M of Q2 subscription revenue per the Q2 release).
Base EBIT marginAdobe FY2025 10-K (accession 0000796343-26-000003, filed 2026-01-15): GAAP operating income $8,706M / revenue $23,769M = 36.63%. This is GAAP: stock-based compensation ($1,942M, 8.2% of revenue) and intangible amortization stay inside it. Adobe's headline 'non-GAAP operating margin' (~45%) adds both back and is NOT used. CROSS-CHECK, 9M FY2026: GAAP operating income $7,010M / $19,776M = 35.45%, down from 36.67% in 9M FY2025 — the drop is a $70M Q2 goodwill impairment (Publishing & Advertising), a $30M loss contingency, Semrush acquisition costs and amortization, and G&A up 30% YoY ($1,497M vs $1,152M). FY2024's 31.3% is distorted by the $1,000M Figma termination fee, which is why FY2025 is the cleaner base.	36.6%	Adobe FY2025 10-K (accession 0000796343-26-000003, filed 2026-01-15): GAAP operating income $8,706M / revenue $23,769M = 36.63%. This is GAAP: stock-based compensation ($1,942M, 8.2% of revenue) and intangible amortization stay inside it. Adobe's headline 'non-GAAP operating margin' (~45%) adds both back and is NOT used. CROSS-CHECK, 9M FY2026: GAAP operating income $7,010M / $19,776M = 35.45%, down from 36.67% in 9M FY2025 — the drop is a $70M Q2 goodwill impairment (Publishing & Advertising), a $30M loss contingency, Semrush acquisition costs and amortization, and G&A up 30% YoY ($1,497M vs $1,152M). FY2024's 31.3% is distorted by the $1,000M Figma termination fee, which is why FY2025 is the cleaner base.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	12% → 8% → 7% → 6% → 5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.417, used UNNORMALIZED per house rule. My own regression on 60 monthly returns vs the S&P 500 (Nov 2021-Oct 2026) gives 1.39, so the figure reproduces. It is window-sensitive and that matters here: the 3Y monthly beta is 1.25 and the 2Y weekly is 0.98. The 5Y window carries the 2022 rate shock, when long-duration software fell with the market. I did not normalize because there is no clean reason the 2022 co-movement should be excluded — but this is the single biggest lever: beta 1.25 adds ~$21/share, beta 0.98 adds ~$64. Keeping 1.417 is the CONSERVATIVE choice (higher discount rate, lower value).	1.42	Yahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.417, used UNNORMALIZED per house rule. My own regression on 60 monthly returns vs the S&P 500 (Nov 2021-Oct 2026) gives 1.39, so the figure reproduces. It is window-sensitive and that matters here: the 3Y monthly beta is 1.25 and the 2Y weekly is 0.98. The 5Y window carries the 2022 rate shock, when long-duration software fell with the market. I did not normalize because there is no clean reason the 2022 co-movement should be excluded — but this is the single biggest lever: beta 1.25 adds ~$21/share, beta 0.98 adds ~$64. Keeping 1.417 is the CONSERVATIVE choice (higher discount rate, lower value).
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Adobe this is the AI question in its purest form: 2.5% forever assumes Creative Cloud, Acrobat and the marketing stack stay relevant and grow with the economy rather than shrink as generative tools commoditize content creation. Well below the 11.84% WACC.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Adobe this is the AI question in its purest form: 2.5% forever assumes Creative Cloud, Acrobat and the marketing stack stay relevant and grow with the economy rather than shrink as generative tools commoditize content creation. Well below the 11.84% WACC.
Diluted sharesAdobe Q3 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0000796343-26-000156, filed 2026-09-22), Note 12 Net Income per Share: Q3 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 395.5M (basic 395.0M + 0.5M dilutive). The count is falling FAST: 430.2M in Q3 FY2025, 427.0M for FY2025, 389.2M outstanding at 2026-09-18, and Q4 is guided at ~389M. Buybacks: 26.1M shares for $6,820M in 9M FY2026; $24.55B left under the April 2026 authority (through April 2030). The weighted Q3 figure is used per house rule; it overstates today's count by ~1.6%, so it is mildly CONSERVATIVE — using 389.2M would add ~$3.60/share. Future buybacks are not credited separately: they are a use of the same free cash flow the DCF already values.	396M	Adobe Q3 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0000796343-26-000156, filed 2026-09-22), Note 12 Net Income per Share: Q3 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 395.5M (basic 395.0M + 0.5M dilutive). The count is falling FAST: 430.2M in Q3 FY2025, 427.0M for FY2025, 389.2M outstanding at 2026-09-18, and Q4 is guided at ~389M. Buybacks: 26.1M shares for $6,820M in 9M FY2026; $24.55B left under the April 2026 authority (through April 2030). The weighted Q3 figure is used per house rule; it overstates today's count by ~1.6%, so it is mildly CONSERVATIVE — using 389.2M would add ~$3.60/share. Future buybacks are not credited separately: they are a use of the same free cash flow the DCF already values.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC	$245.20	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC

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What does Adobe Inc. do?

What does it do?

Adobe Inc. operates as a technology company worldwide. It operates in the Software - Application industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 31,360 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $26.0B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $35 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 34.8%), after a 89% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 28.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.6× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

ADBE insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Adobe Inc.. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

Common questions

What is ADBE's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is $306.45 per share, versus a market price of $245.20 (priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28).
Is ADBE overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28 at $245.20. We don't call ADBE overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ADBE?
A WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Adobe stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is $306.45 against a market price of $245.20. Our read: Priced within our range of $223.36 – $413.28. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Adobe (ADBE) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is $306.45, built on a 11.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Adobe stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $245.20. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Adobe (ADBE) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Adobe Inc. (ADBE). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.