What is HD's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) between $127.12 and $367.78 per share, versus a market price of $309.44. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is HD overvalued or undervalued?

At $309.44 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call HD overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for HD?

A WACC of 9.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is The Home Depot stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is $127.12 – $367.78 against a market price of $309.44. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

The Home Depot (HD) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is $127.12 – $367.78, built on a 9.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into The Home Depot stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 11.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.8% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $309.44. A model estimate, not investment advice.

The Home Depot (HD) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): Scardino Kimberly R, SVP-Finance, CAO & Controller, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-09-20. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

HD · Intrinsic value

Is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) at $127.12 – $367.78, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $309.44 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full HD analysis

What is HD worth?

Fair-value range: $127.12 – $367.78
Market price: $309.44
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 11.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.8% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is HD's TickerWorth Score?

F38/100

Scores lower than almost every company we compare it with

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.

Value · 36 of 100
Cheaper than 36% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 29 of 100
Quality · 60 of 100
More profitable than 60% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 24 of 100
Financially stronger than 24% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 39 of 100
Growing faster than 39% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 30 of 100
Outperformed 30% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL DISAGREES WITH THE MARKET BY ABOUT 30%, AND MOST OF THAT IS THE DISCOUNT RATE. At the house discount rate (5.24% Treasury + 0.955 x 5% ERP, WACC 9.13%) and a 2.5% perpetuity, a business earning ~$15-19B of free cash flow a year is worth ~$250B of enterprise value; at today's price the market pays ~$333B, a ~4.5% yield on Year-1 free cash flow. Holding everything else, the price needs a beta of ~0.57 (WACC ~7.5%), or terminal growth of ~4.5%, or a steady ~17.3% operating margin from FY2027 (well above the 15.3% FY2022 peak), or ~11.9% revenue growth a year for five years. Housing turnover is the central OPERATING judgement, but no plausible housing path alone closes the gap: a strong recovery in both growth (5-6%) and margin (to 14.0%) gives ~$226, and a stuck market (2.5-3% growth, margin flat at 12.1%) gives ~$176.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~74% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - just under the 75% line. The five explicit years carry about a quarter of the answer, so this is a valuation of Home Depot's steady state.
YEAR 1 IS ALREADY HALF REPORTED (H1 ended 2026-08-02). The engine discounts all of FY2026 a full year, which understates its value slightly, while H1's cash generation (and the tariff refunds) already sit in the 2026-08-02 balance sheet, which overstates it slightly. The two roughly offset; the FY2026 10-K (~March 2027) re-base removes the overlap.
Year-1 FCF (~$14.9B modelled) is ~18% ABOVE the last reported FY2025 FCF ($12,646M) - inside the 20% threshold, but stated: FY2025 carried a one-off -$3.1B working-capital outflow (inventory build, lower payables and income taxes payable). The model's figure is ~2% below trailing-twelve-month FCF to 2026-08-02 ($15,099M), which itself includes tariff refunds and a working-capital inflow.
THE MARGIN PATH IS THE SOFTEST INPUT. Twelve-point-one to 13.0% assumes operating leverage returns without a full housing recovery. The first half of FY2026 ran ~130bp below the prior year excluding refunds, SG&A is growing 7%, and the faster-growing SRS/GMS businesses carry lower margins. If the underlying margin keeps slipping, the value falls toward ~$183 (flat 12.1%).
SBC of $524M (0.3% of sales) is expensed inside GAAP operating income and is not added back; dilution is captured by the weighted-diluted count, which is flat while buybacks are paused.
No beta, tax or lease adjustment has been made to move the answer toward the market price; the inputs are published or guided figures except the Years 2-5 path, which is mine.

Why HD gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $309.44, The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $127.12 and $367.78 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts The Home Depot, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 11.7% annual revenue growth for HD. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.8% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, HD's modeled DCF value ranges from about $135.84 to $339.15 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what The Home Depot, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of HD's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind HD's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueHome Depot FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-019436, filed 2026-03-18), 52 weeks ended 2026-02-01: Net sales $164,683M, +3.2% on FY2024's $159,514M. THE HEADLINE GROWTH FLATTERS THE BUSINESS IN ONE DIRECTION AND UNDERSTATES IT IN ANOTHER: SRS (acquired 2024-06-18) and GMS (acquired 2025-09-04) together added ~$6.3B of incremental sales, while FY2024 carried a 53rd week worth ~$2.5B. Comparable sales were +0.3% (transactions -1.0%, ticket +1.4%) - the first positive comp year after -3.2% (FY2023) and -1.8% (FY2024), and the 10-K attributes the weakness to 'a persisting high interest rate environment' pressuring home-improvement demand. FY2025 is a clean 52-week year, so no extra-week adjustment is needed. UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2026 (26 weeks to 2026-08-02) net sales $89,626M, +5.3% on $85,133M (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-08-18), of which GMS contributed ~$2.8B (10-Q MD&A); comps +1.2% (Q2 +1.7%). Trailing twelve months to 2026-08-02: $169,176M.	$164,683,000,000	Home Depot FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-019436, filed 2026-03-18), 52 weeks ended 2026-02-01: Net sales $164,683M, +3.2% on FY2024's $159,514M. THE HEADLINE GROWTH FLATTERS THE BUSINESS IN ONE DIRECTION AND UNDERSTATES IT IN ANOTHER: SRS (acquired 2024-06-18) and GMS (acquired 2025-09-04) together added ~$6.3B of incremental sales, while FY2024 carried a 53rd week worth ~$2.5B. Comparable sales were +0.3% (transactions -1.0%, ticket +1.4%) - the first positive comp year after -3.2% (FY2023) and -1.8% (FY2024), and the 10-K attributes the weakness to 'a persisting high interest rate environment' pressuring home-improvement demand. FY2025 is a clean 52-week year, so no extra-week adjustment is needed. UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2026 (26 weeks to 2026-08-02) net sales $89,626M, +5.3% on $85,133M (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-08-18), of which GMS contributed ~$2.8B (10-Q MD&A); comps +1.2% (Q2 +1.7%). Trailing twelve months to 2026-08-02: $169,176M.
Base EBIT marginHome Depot Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000354950-26-000026, filed 2026-02-24) + FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-019436): GAAP operating income $20,890M / net sales $164,683M = 12.68% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, ties to the 10-K). GAAP, i.e. AFTER $607M of acquired-intangible amortization; management's adjusted margin, which adds it back, was 13.1% ($21,497M). The trend is the story (same tag, 10-K filings): 14.4% FY2019, 15.2% FY2021, 15.3% FY2022 peak, 14.2% FY2023, 13.5% FY2024, 12.7% FY2025 - three years down, from (a) deleverage on negative-to-flat comps, (b) mix: the lower-margin SRS/GMS distribution businesses (the 'Other' segment earned $263M of operating income on $9,057M of sales in H1 FY2026, 2.9% after amortization), and (c) SG&A up 6.8% in FY2025 on payroll. CROSS-CHECK H1 FY2026: GAAP 13.19% ($11,820M) vs 13.73% in H1 FY2025, and 12.42% excluding the ~$685M of IEEPA tariff refunds booked in cost of sales - a ~130bp YoY decline in the underlying first-half margin. Operating leases: the $1,846M of FY2025 operating lease cost stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leaving operating lease liabilities out of net debt.	12.7%	Home Depot Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000354950-26-000026, filed 2026-02-24) + FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-019436): GAAP operating income $20,890M / net sales $164,683M = 12.68% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, ties to the 10-K). GAAP, i.e. AFTER $607M of acquired-intangible amortization; management's adjusted margin, which adds it back, was 13.1% ($21,497M). The trend is the story (same tag, 10-K filings): 14.4% FY2019, 15.2% FY2021, 15.3% FY2022 peak, 14.2% FY2023, 13.5% FY2024, 12.7% FY2025 - three years down, from (a) deleverage on negative-to-flat comps, (b) mix: the lower-margin SRS/GMS distribution businesses (the 'Other' segment earned $263M of operating income on $9,057M of sales in H1 FY2026, 2.9% after amortization), and (c) SG&A up 6.8% in FY2025 on payroll. CROSS-CHECK H1 FY2026: GAAP 13.19% ($11,820M) vs 13.73% in H1 FY2025, and 12.42% excluding the ~$685M of IEEPA tariff refunds booked in cost of sales - a ~130bp YoY decline in the underlying first-half margin. Operating leases: the $1,846M of FY2025 operating lease cost stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leaving operating lease liabilities out of net debt.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. For Home Depot this is not only a discount-rate input: the same rate drives the mortgage rates that hold housing turnover down, so a high risk-free rate hurts this valuation twice.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. For Home Depot this is not only a discount-rate input: the same rate drives the mortgage rates that hold housing turnover down, so a high risk-free rate hurts this valuation twice.
BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.955, used AS IS - no normalization. The window covers the 2021-22 housing boom and the 2022-23 rate shock, both genuine housing-cycle exposure rather than one-off noise, so there is nothing to strip out. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $17/share (0.855 gives ~$217).	0.95	Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.955, used AS IS - no normalization. The window covers the 2021-22 housing boom and the 2022-23 rate shock, both genuine housing-cycle exposure rather than one-off noise, so there is nothing to strip out. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $17/share (0.855 gives ~$217).
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. For Home Depot it is if anything slightly conservative: net sales grew from $94.6B (FY2016) to $164.7B (FY2025), ~6.4% a year, though roughly a third of the last two years' growth was bought (SRS, GMS) and FY2020-21 carried a pandemic step-up. 3.0% adds ~$16/share; 2.0% takes ~$14 off. Must remain < WACC of 9.13%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. For Home Depot it is if anything slightly conservative: net sales grew from $94.6B (FY2016) to $164.7B (FY2025), ~6.4% a year, though roughly a third of the last two years' growth was bought (SRS, GMS) and FY2020-21 carried a pandemic step-up. 3.0% adds ~$16/share; 2.0% takes ~$14 off. Must remain < WACC of 9.13%.
Diluted sharesHome Depot Q2 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001628280-26-058715) Note 8 + 8-K Ex-99.1 (2026-08-18): Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks to 2026-08-02) weighted-average diluted shares 996M (basic 994M + 2M dilutive awards); H1 also 996M; FY2025 995M. Reported in whole millions only. Shares outstanding 997.69M at 2026-08-18. The count is FLAT and drifting up: buybacks have been paused since March 2024 (SRS) and the 10-Q says there are no plans to resume them in FY2026 'as we seek to reduce our outstanding debt'; the CFO said on 2026-09-15 they would resume around the end of Q2 FY2027 once leverage reaches ~2.0x. SBC ($524M in FY2025) dilution is small.	996M	Home Depot Q2 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001628280-26-058715) Note 8 + 8-K Ex-99.1 (2026-08-18): Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks to 2026-08-02) weighted-average diluted shares 996M (basic 994M + 2M dilutive awards); H1 also 996M; FY2025 995M. Reported in whole millions only. Shares outstanding 997.69M at 2026-08-18. The count is FLAT and drifting up: buybacks have been paused since March 2024 (SRS) and the 10-Q says there are no plans to resume them in FY2026 'as we seek to reduce our outstanding debt'; the CFO said on 2026-09-15 they would resume around the end of Q2 FY2027 once leverage reaches ~2.0x. SBC ($524M in FY2025) dilution is small.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:02 UTC	$309.44	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:02 UTC

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What does The Home Depot, Inc. do?

What does it do?

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It operates in the Home Improvement Retail industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 470,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $169.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $13 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 12.9%), after a 33% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 8.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (3.8× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at HD filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for The Home Depot, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
20 Sept 2026	Scardino Kimberly R	SVP-Finance, CAO & Controller	Shares withheld (tax)	$24,298.38	Form 4 for Scardino Kimberly R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
20 Sept 2026	Broggi Jordan	EVP-Interconnected Retail	Shares withheld (tax)	$38,997.40	Form 4 for Broggi Jordan (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
20 Sept 2026	BROWN ANGIE	EVP & CIO	Shares withheld (tax)	$28,798.08	Form 4 for BROWN ANGIE (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
20 Sept 2026	Deaton John A.	EVP - Supply Chain & Prod. Dev	Shares withheld (tax)	$103,193.12	Form 4 for Deaton John A. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
20 Sept 2026	McPhail Richard V	EVP & CFO	Shares withheld (tax)	$166,188.92	Form 4 for McPhail Richard V (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
20 Sept 2026	SMITH STEPHANIE	EVP - Human Resources	Shares withheld (tax)	$38,997.40	Form 4 for SMITH STEPHANIE (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is HD's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) between $127.12 and $367.78 per share, versus a market price of $309.44. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is HD overvalued or undervalued?
At $309.44 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call HD overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for HD?
A WACC of 9.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is The Home Depot stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is $127.12 – $367.78 against a market price of $309.44. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
The Home Depot (HD) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is $127.12 – $367.78, built on a 9.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into The Home Depot stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 11.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.8% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $309.44. A model estimate, not investment advice.
The Home Depot (HD) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): Scardino Kimberly R, SVP-Finance, CAO & Controller, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-09-20. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.