What is WMT's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Walmart Inc. (WMT) is $45.00 per share, versus a market price of $118.81 (164% above fair value).

Is WMT overvalued or undervalued?

On our blended fair value WMT looks overvalued vs fair value at $118.81. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for WMT?

A WACC of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Walmart stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Walmart Inc. (WMT) is $45.00 against a market price of $118.81. Our read: 164% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Walmart (WMT) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Walmart Inc. (WMT) is $45.00, built on a 8.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Walmart stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $118.81. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Walmart (WMT) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Walmart Inc. (WMT): Furner John R., Director, President & CEO, open-market sale on 2026-10-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

WMT · Intrinsic value

Is Walmart Inc. (WMT) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Walmart Inc. (WMT) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Walmart Inc. (WMT) trades at the delayed market price of $118.81 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 22.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $45.00 a share (164% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full WMT analysis

Is WMT overvalued?

Fair value: $45.00
Market price: $118.81
Downside to fair value: 62.1%
Verdict: 164% above fair value

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 12:52 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: 164% above fair value.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.9% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is WMT's TickerWorth Score?

F32/100

Scores lower than almost every company we compare it with

Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US

Its strongest point: strong balance sheet. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.

Value · 22 of 100
Cheaper than 22% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Price vs worth · 0 of 100
Quality · 30 of 100
More profitable than 30% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Financial health · 59 of 100
Financially stronger than 59% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Growth · 44 of 100
Growing faster than 44% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Momentum · 51 of 100
Outperformed 51% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 12:52 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL DISAGREES WITH THE MARKET BY ABOUT TWO-THIRDS, AND THAT IS THE FINDING. At the house discount rate (5.24% Treasury + 0.595 x 5% ERP; WACC 7.96%) and a 2.5% perpetuity, a retailer earning a ~4.5-4.9% operating margin on ~4% growth is worth roughly 13.5x this year's guided adjusted earnings (FY2027 adjusted EPS guide $2.80-$2.87); the market pays ~37x trailing GAAP earnings even after a 23% fall from the high. Holding the model's discount rate and capital intensity, the price needs ~6.0% growth forever, or a steady operating margin of ~9.9% from FY2028 (Walmart has never been above 6.1%), or revenue growth of ~22.6% a year for five years (revenue of ~$2.0 trillion by FY2031), and NO beta closes it - even a beta of zero gives only ~$87. Like Costco in this tracker, the gap is about how long Walmart keeps compounding above the economy - the house convention cuts every company to 2.5% after five years - not about the discount rate.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~80% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - above the 75% line. The five explicit years carry about a fifth of the answer, so this is a valuation of Walmart's steady state. Sensitivity across WACC +/-1.5pt and terminal growth +/-1pt runs roughly $25 to $75 - even the top is more than a quarter below today's price.
YEAR-1 FCF (~$12.0B modelled) IS ~20% BELOW THE LAST REPORTED FY2026 FCF ($14,923M) - right on the 20% line, so explained: the guided capex step-up from $26.6B to ~$29.5B (+$2.9B) accounts for the whole gap; operating cash generation rises. Against the trailing twelve months to Q2 ($13.5B) the gap is ~11%.
THE MARGIN PATH IS THE SOFTEST INPUT. Year 1 is guidance; Years 2-5 add 10bp a year to 4.85%, operating income growing ~6% a year. Management's framework is open-ended ('faster than sales'), and the bull case - advertising and membership compounding at 20-40% - would add more. Ending at 5.35% (adding 25bp a year) gives about $44; it does not change the conclusion.
TIMING: Year 1 is FY2027, which is already half reported (H1 ended 2026-07-31). The engine discounts all of FY2027 a full year, which understates its value slightly, while H1 cash generation already sits in the 2026-07-31 balance sheet, which overstates it slightly. The two roughly offset; the FY2027 10-K (~March 2027) re-base removes the overlap.
MINORITY-INTEREST VALUE IS AN ESTIMATE: Walmart's ownership of Walmex (71.8%) is Yahoo's insider-holding figure rather than a filing; Flipkart and PhonePe minorities are at book. PhonePe's IPO, shelved in March 2026 amid market volatility, would put a market price on part of this; if it lists near the reported $9-15B range the deduction rises by a few hundred million to a couple of billion dollars - under $0.25/share.
SBC of $3,603M in FY2026 ($2.9B ex the one-off PhonePe charge, ~0.4% of revenue) is expensed inside GAAP operating income and is not added back; dilution is captured by the weighted-diluted count, which is falling because buybacks exceed issuance.

WMT DCF valuation: what the price assumes

At a recent price of $118.81, Walmart Inc. (WMT) trades 164% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $45.00 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices WMT overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -62.1% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values WMT at about $38.24 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Walmart Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 22.6% annual revenue growth for WMT. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.9% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, WMT's modeled DCF value ranges from about $24.60 to $74.76 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Walmart Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of WMT's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind WMT's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueWalmart FY2026 10-K (accession 0000104169-26-000055, filed 2026-03-13), fiscal year ended 2026-01-31: Total revenues $713,163M (us-gaap:Revenues, FY2026) = net sales $706,413M + membership and other income $6,750M. +4.7% reported on FY2025's $680,985M (+5.1% constant currency, per the Q4 FY26 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 accession 0000104169-26-000032). Total revenues rather than net sales because the membership-fee and advertising lines are among the highest-margin revenue Walmart earns and they sit inside the operating income the margin is measured against. FY2026 was a 52-week year; FY2025 was 53 weeks for the comp calendar only. UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 (six months to 2026-07-31) total revenues $365,688M, +6.6% reported and +5.5% constant currency on H1 FY2026's $343,011M (Q2 FY27 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 accession 0000104169-26-000145). Trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31: $735,840M.	$713,163,000,000	Walmart FY2026 10-K (accession 0000104169-26-000055, filed 2026-03-13), fiscal year ended 2026-01-31: Total revenues $713,163M (us-gaap:Revenues, FY2026) = net sales $706,413M + membership and other income $6,750M. +4.7% reported on FY2025's $680,985M (+5.1% constant currency, per the Q4 FY26 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 accession 0000104169-26-000032). Total revenues rather than net sales because the membership-fee and advertising lines are among the highest-margin revenue Walmart earns and they sit inside the operating income the margin is measured against. FY2026 was a 52-week year; FY2025 was 53 weeks for the comp calendar only. UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 (six months to 2026-07-31) total revenues $365,688M, +6.6% reported and +5.5% constant currency on H1 FY2026's $343,011M (Q2 FY27 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 accession 0000104169-26-000145). Trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31: $735,840M.
Base EBIT marginWalmart Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000104169-26-000032, filed 2026-02-19) + FY2026 10-K: GAAP operating income $29,825M / total revenues $713,163M = 4.18% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, ties to the 10-K). It carries $1,157M of items management adjusts out: a $722M non-cash share-based-compensation charge at PhonePe (plan modification ahead of its planned IPO, no tax benefit), $285M of certain legal matters and $150M of business reorganization charges. Management's ADJUSTED operating income was $30,982M (4.34%) - that is the base FY2027 guidance grows from. History on the same GAAP tag: 5.6-6.1% FY2008-FY2015, a reset to ~4.0-4.3% from FY2017 as Walmart invested in wages, price and eCommerce, a 3.34% trough in FY2023 (inventory glut), then 4.17%, 4.31%, 4.18%. Because Year 1 (4.45%) sits ABOVE this figure, the cyclical peak-fade check compares against Year 1 and cannot fire. Operating leases: $2,434M of FY2026 operating lease cost stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leaving operating lease liabilities out of net debt. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 GAAP operating income $16,876M on $365,688M = 4.61% (H1 FY2026 4.20%) - but H1 includes ~$2.9B of IEEPA tariff refunds recorded as a reduction of cost of sales, most of which Walmart says it is reinvesting in price through the rest of the year.	4.2%	Walmart Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000104169-26-000032, filed 2026-02-19) + FY2026 10-K: GAAP operating income $29,825M / total revenues $713,163M = 4.18% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, ties to the 10-K). It carries $1,157M of items management adjusts out: a $722M non-cash share-based-compensation charge at PhonePe (plan modification ahead of its planned IPO, no tax benefit), $285M of certain legal matters and $150M of business reorganization charges. Management's ADJUSTED operating income was $30,982M (4.34%) - that is the base FY2027 guidance grows from. History on the same GAAP tag: 5.6-6.1% FY2008-FY2015, a reset to ~4.0-4.3% from FY2017 as Walmart invested in wages, price and eCommerce, a 3.34% trough in FY2023 (inventory glut), then 4.17%, 4.31%, 4.18%. Because Year 1 (4.45%) sits ABOVE this figure, the cyclical peak-fade check compares against Year 1 and cannot fire. Operating leases: $2,434M of FY2026 operating lease cost stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leaving operating lease liabilities out of net debt. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 GAAP operating income $16,876M on $365,688M = 4.61% (H1 FY2026 4.20%) - but H1 includes ~$2.9B of IEEPA tariff refunds recorded as a reduction of cost of sales, most of which Walmart says it is reinvesting in price through the rest of the year.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.595, used AS IS - no normalization. It is low, and that is the company: Walmart is the archetypal defensive stock, selling groceries and consumables that ~280 million customers a week buy in any economy, and it has measured well below 1.0 for decades. The 2026 drawdown (from a $135.16 52-week high to ~$104) is company-specific (comp slowdown, price investment) rather than market beta, so there is no event in the window that argues for adjusting it either way. Note what a low beta does: it makes this model MORE generous than a market-beta discount rate would, and the gap to the price persists anyway (see caveats). Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $4/share (0.695 gives $34.55, 0.495 gives $42.62).	0.59	Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.595, used AS IS - no normalization. It is low, and that is the company: Walmart is the archetypal defensive stock, selling groceries and consumables that ~280 million customers a week buy in any economy, and it has measured well below 1.0 for decades. The 2026 drawdown (from a $135.16 52-week high to ~$104) is company-specific (comp slowdown, price investment) rather than market beta, so there is no event in the window that argues for adjusting it either way. Note what a low beta does: it makes this model MORE generous than a market-beta discount rate would, and the gap to the price persists anyway (see caveats). Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $4/share (0.695 gives $34.55, 0.495 gives $42.62).
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. For Walmart it is on the cautious side of its own history: revenue compounded ~3.2% a year from FY2008 ($377.0B) to FY2026 ($713.2B), ~4.6% a year since FY2021. 3.0% adds ~$3.85/share ($42.08); 2.0% takes ~$3.20 off ($35.04). Must remain < WACC of 7.96%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. For Walmart it is on the cautious side of its own history: revenue compounded ~3.2% a year from FY2008 ($377.0B) to FY2026 ($713.2B), ~4.6% a year since FY2021. 3.0% adds ~$3.85/share ($42.08); 2.0% takes ~$3.20 off ($35.04). Must remain < WACC of 7.96%.
Diluted sharesWalmart Q2 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0000104169-26-000154, filed 2026-08-28) Note 2 EPS: Q2 FY2027 (three months to 2026-07-31) weighted-average diluted shares 7,978M; H1 7,989M; FY2026 8,022M. Shares outstanding 7,933.7M at 2026-08-26. The count is FALLING ~0.5% a year: Walmart repurchased 42.3M shares ($5.1B) in H1 FY2027 under a $30B authorization announced in February 2026 ($25.1B remaining). Same post-2024-split basis as the price.	7,978M	Walmart Q2 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0000104169-26-000154, filed 2026-08-28) Note 2 EPS: Q2 FY2027 (three months to 2026-07-31) weighted-average diluted shares 7,978M; H1 7,989M; FY2026 8,022M. Shares outstanding 7,933.7M at 2026-08-26. The count is FALLING ~0.5% a year: Walmart repurchased 42.3M shares ($5.1B) in H1 FY2027 under a $30B authorization announced in February 2026 ($25.1B remaining). Same post-2024-split basis as the price.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 12:52 UTC	$118.81	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 12:52 UTC

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What does Walmart Inc. do?

What does it do?

Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. It operates in the Discount Stores industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 2,100,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $735.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $3 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 3.5%), after a 25% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 3.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries modest debt (0.7× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at WMT filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Walmart Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
15 Oct 2026	Furner John R.	Director, President & CEO	Open-market sale	$852,994.56	Form 4 for Furner John R. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Oct 2026	Furner John R.	Director, President & CEO	Open-market sale	$729,906.92	Form 4 for Furner John R. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Oct 2026	Nicholas Christopher James	Executive Vice President	Open-market sale	$192,522.24	Form 4 for Nicholas Christopher James (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Oct 2026	Nicholas Christopher James	Executive Vice President	Open-market sale	$157,229.02	Form 4 for Nicholas Christopher James (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
14 Oct 2026	Watkins Latriece	Executive Vice President	Open-market sale	$575,000.00	Form 4 for Watkins Latriece (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
6 Oct 2026	Dallaire Seth	Executive Vice President	Shares withheld (tax)	$40,622.06	Form 4 for Dallaire Seth (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is WMT's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Walmart Inc. (WMT) is $45.00 per share, versus a market price of $118.81 (164% above fair value).
Is WMT overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value WMT looks overvalued vs fair value at $118.81. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for WMT?
A WACC of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Walmart stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Walmart Inc. (WMT) is $45.00 against a market price of $118.81. Our read: 164% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Walmart (WMT) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Walmart Inc. (WMT) is $45.00, built on a 8.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Walmart stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 22.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $118.81. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Walmart (WMT) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Walmart Inc. (WMT): Furner John R., Director, President & CEO, open-market sale on 2026-10-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.