What is TGT's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Target Corporation (TGT) between $62.01 and $323.24 per share, versus a market price of $154.26. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is TGT overvalued or undervalued?

At $154.26 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call TGT overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for TGT?

A WACC of 9.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Target stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Target Corporation (TGT) is $62.01 – $323.24 against a market price of $154.26. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Target (TGT) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Target Corporation (TGT) is $62.01 – $323.24, built on a 9.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Target stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 10.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $154.26. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Target (TGT) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Target Corporation (TGT): WEINSTEIN MARK A., Executive Officer, grant / award on 2026-09-30. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

TGT · Intrinsic value

Is Target Corporation (TGT) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Target Corporation (TGT) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Target Corporation (TGT) at $62.01 – $323.24, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $154.26 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full TGT analysis

What is TGT worth?

Fair-value range: $62.01 – $323.24
Market price: $154.26
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 10.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.6% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is TGT's TickerWorth Score?

C55/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: profitability is weak.

Value · 68 of 100
Cheaper than 68% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Price vs worth · 46 of 100
Quality · 38 of 100
More profitable than 38% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Financial health · 58 of 100
Financially stronger than 58% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Growth · 48 of 100
Growing faster than 48% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Momentum · 76 of 100
Outperformed 76% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL DISAGREES WITH THE MARKET BY ABOUT A THIRD, AND THAT IS THE FINDING. At the house discount rate (5.24% Treasury + 0.986 x 5% ERP, WACC 9.2%) and a 2.5% perpetuity, a retailer earning a ~5.5% operating margin on 3% growth is worth roughly 12x this year's ex-refund earnings; the market pays ~16-18x. To reach today's price with everything else held, you need a steady operating margin of ~7.6% from FY2027 (Target has beaten that once, 8.4% in the FY2021 stimulus year), or ~4.8% growth forever, or a beta of ~0.52 (WACC ~7.3%), or ~10.5% revenue growth a year for five years. The disagreement is about how far the margin recovers and the discount rate, not about whether the turnaround is real - the H1 numbers say it is.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~75% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - right on the line. The five explicit years carry only a quarter of the answer, so this is a valuation of Target's steady state. Sensitivity across WACC +/-1.5pt and terminal growth +/-1pt runs roughly $72-$173.
THE MARGIN PATH IS THE SOFTEST INPUT AND IT IS DELIBERATELY BELOW MANAGEMENT'S AMBITION. Management says pre-pandemic margins (~6%) are 'a definitive yes'; the model stops at 5.7% because SG&A is growing 7%, prices are being cut on thousands of items, and the capex step-up brings start-up costs. Ending at 6.0% instead gives $111.24.
TIMING: Year 1 is FY2026, which is already half reported (H1 ended 2026-08-01). The engine discounts all of FY2026 a full year, which understates its value slightly, while H1's cash generation already sits in the 2026-08-01 balance sheet, which overstates it slightly. The two roughly offset (net within ~$2/share); the FY2026 10-K (~March 2027) re-base removes the overlap.
CAPEX IS SET AT 4.0% OF REVENUE AFTER A GUIDED ~$5B YEAR 1 - above Target's ten-year average of ~3.6%, because management has committed to a multi-year store build. If the $5B step-up becomes the new normal (~4.5% of revenue), value falls ~$17/share ($86.29); reverting to the ten-year average of 3.6% adds ~$14 ($117.60).
Year-1 FCF (~$2.8B modelled) is within 2% of the last reported FY2025 FCF ($2,835M), so there is no reported-vs-modelled gap to explain. It is well below the ~$4.5B trailing twelve months to Q2 2026, but that figure includes the $994M tariff refund and a large H1 payables inflow.
SBC of $281M (0.3% of revenue) is expensed inside GAAP operating income and is not added back; dilution is captured by the weighted-diluted count, which is flat.

Why TGT gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $154.26, Target Corporation (TGT) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $62.01 and $323.24 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Target Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 10.2% annual revenue growth for TGT. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TGT's modeled DCF value ranges from about $71.70 to $173.42 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Target Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TGT's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind TGT's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueTarget FY2025 10-K (accession 0000027419-26-000016, filed 2026-03-11), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-31: Net Sales $104,780M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025). Since 2024 Target reports ONE top line, 'Net Sales' = merchandise sales plus non-merchandise sales (Roundel advertising, credit-card profit sharing, Target Circle 360 membership, Target+ marketplace fees), so this is total revenue. -1.7% vs FY2024's $106,566M, on comparable sales of -2.6%; the third straight year of shrinking revenue from the FY2022 peak of $109,120M. UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth, so the recovery belongs in Year 1. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 (26 weeks to 2026-08-01) Net Sales $51,982M, +6.0% on H1 2025's $49,057M (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-08-19), with comparable sales +4.7% (Q1 +5.6%, Q2 +3.8%) on traffic +4.0%. The turnaround is already in the reported numbers; the base year is the trough, not the trend.	$104,780,000,000	Target FY2025 10-K (accession 0000027419-26-000016, filed 2026-03-11), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-31: Net Sales $104,780M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025). Since 2024 Target reports ONE top line, 'Net Sales' = merchandise sales plus non-merchandise sales (Roundel advertising, credit-card profit sharing, Target Circle 360 membership, Target+ marketplace fees), so this is total revenue. -1.7% vs FY2024's $106,566M, on comparable sales of -2.6%; the third straight year of shrinking revenue from the FY2022 peak of $109,120M. UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth, so the recovery belongs in Year 1. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 (26 weeks to 2026-08-01) Net Sales $51,982M, +6.0% on H1 2025's $49,057M (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-08-19), with comparable sales +4.7% (Q1 +5.6%, Q2 +3.8%) on traffic +4.0%. The turnaround is already in the reported numbers; the base year is the trough, not the trend.
Base EBIT marginTarget Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000027419-26-000012, filed 2026-03-03) + FY2025 10-K: GAAP operating income $5,117M / Net Sales $104,780M = 4.88% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, ties to the 10-K). It includes two non-recurring items that roughly half-cancel: +$593M of interchange-fee litigation settlement gains (Q1 2025) and -$250M of business transformation costs. Management's ADJUSTED margin, excluding both, was 4.6% ($4,774M) - that is the figure FY2026 guidance is built on, and it is the honest trough. History for context (same tag): 6.0% FY2019 pre-pandemic, 8.4% FY2021 peak, 3.5% FY2022 (the inventory glut), 5.3% FY2023, 5.2% FY2024, 4.9% GAAP / 4.6% adjusted FY2025. This base-year figure is not used to forecast - Year 1 starts from guidance - but it is the 'peak' the cyclical check compares against, and at 4.88% it is BELOW Year 1, so no peak-fade flag can fire off it. Operating leases: rent ($691M operating lease cost in FY2025) stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leaving operating lease liabilities out of net debt.	4.9%	Target Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000027419-26-000012, filed 2026-03-03) + FY2025 10-K: GAAP operating income $5,117M / Net Sales $104,780M = 4.88% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, ties to the 10-K). It includes two non-recurring items that roughly half-cancel: +$593M of interchange-fee litigation settlement gains (Q1 2025) and -$250M of business transformation costs. Management's ADJUSTED margin, excluding both, was 4.6% ($4,774M) - that is the figure FY2026 guidance is built on, and it is the honest trough. History for context (same tag): 6.0% FY2019 pre-pandemic, 8.4% FY2021 peak, 3.5% FY2022 (the inventory glut), 5.3% FY2023, 5.2% FY2024, 4.9% GAAP / 4.6% adjusted FY2025. This base-year figure is not used to forecast - Year 1 starts from guidance - but it is the 'peak' the cyclical check compares against, and at 4.88% it is BELOW Year 1, so no peak-fade flag can fire off it. Operating leases: rent ($691M operating lease cost in FY2025) stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leaving operating lease liabilities out of net debt.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	5% → 4% → 4% → 3% → 3%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.986, used AS IS - no normalization. It is higher than a staples-heavy retailer 'should' carry (Costco 0.855), and that is earned rather than noise: Target's 5-year window holds the 2022 inventory-glut collapse, the 2023-25 run of shrinking sales, and a 52-week range of $83.44-$170.75. Nearly 60% of its merchandise sales are discretionary categories (H1 2026: apparel, beauty, home and hardlines $29.3B of $50.8B; food and household essentials the other 42%), unlike a warehouse club. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $8.40/share (0.886 gives $112.11); there is no one-off event in the window that would justify normalizing it away.	0.99	Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.986, used AS IS - no normalization. It is higher than a staples-heavy retailer 'should' carry (Costco 0.855), and that is earned rather than noise: Target's 5-year window holds the 2022 inventory-glut collapse, the 2023-25 run of shrinking sales, and a 52-week range of $83.44-$170.75. Nearly 60% of its merchandise sales are discretionary categories (H1 2026: apparel, beauty, home and hardlines $29.3B of $50.8B; food and household essentials the other 42%), unlike a warehouse club. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $8.40/share (0.886 gives $112.11); there is no one-off event in the window that would justify normalizing it away.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. For Target it is neither generous nor harsh: revenue grew from $70.3B (FY2016) to $104.8B (FY2025), ~4.5% a year, but almost all of that came in the 2020-21 pandemic step-up, and FY2022-25 shrank. 3.0% adds ~$8/share; 2.0% takes ~$7 off. Must remain < WACC of 9.20%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. For Target it is neither generous nor harsh: revenue grew from $70.3B (FY2016) to $104.8B (FY2025), ~4.5% a year, but almost all of that came in the 2020-21 pandemic step-up, and FY2022-25 shrank. 3.0% adds ~$8/share; 2.0% takes ~$7 off. Must remain < WACC of 9.20%.
Diluted sharesTarget Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000027419-26-000034) + Q2 10-Q (accession 0000027419-26-000042): Q2 2026 (13 weeks to 2026-08-01) weighted-average diluted shares 456.6M; H1 456.2M; FY2025 455.6M. Shares outstanding 454.29M at 2026-08-01. The count is FLAT: Target bought back only $3M of stock in H1 2026 and none in Q2, with $8.3B of authorization unused - capital is going to stores first. Dilution from stock pay (SBC $281M in FY2025) is small.	457M	Target Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000027419-26-000034) + Q2 10-Q (accession 0000027419-26-000042): Q2 2026 (13 weeks to 2026-08-01) weighted-average diluted shares 456.6M; H1 456.2M; FY2025 455.6M. Shares outstanding 454.29M at 2026-08-01. The count is FLAT: Target bought back only $3M of stock in H1 2026 and none in Q2, with $8.3B of authorization unused - capital is going to stores first. Dilution from stock pay (SBC $281M in FY2025) is small.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC	$154.26	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC

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What does Target Corporation do?

What does it do?

Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States, offering apparel, accessories, shoes, beauty products, food and beverages, electronics, home goods, and household essentials across approximately 400,000 employees.

How does it make money?

Target generates revenue through retail sales of merchandise across multiple categories. In the most recent period, the company reported total revenue of $107.7 billion with a gross margin of 28.38%, an operating margin of 6.04%, and a net profit margin of 4.08%.

Is it financially healthy?

Target's financial health shows mixed signals: it has a current ratio of 0.988, which is slightly below the 1.0 threshold indicating potential short-term liquidity tightness, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.08, meaning the company carries debt roughly equal to its equity.

Who at TGT filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Target Corporation
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
30 Sept 2026	WEINSTEIN MARK A.	Executive Officer	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for WEINSTEIN MARK A. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
30 Sept 2026	WEINSTEIN MARK A.	Executive Officer	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for WEINSTEIN MARK A. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
30 Sept 2026	Lee James	Executive Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$1,206,029.84	Form 4 for Lee James (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
25 Aug 2026	Cornell Brian C	Director, Executive Officer	Open-market sale	$8,177,780.00	Form 4 for Cornell Brian C (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
24 Aug 2026	Kremer Melissa K	Executive Officer	Open-market sale	$2,634,318.00	Form 4 for Kremer Melissa K (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
21 Aug 2026	LIEGEL MATTHEW A	Chief Accounting Officer	Open-market sale	$151,410.26	Form 4 for LIEGEL MATTHEW A (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is TGT's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Target Corporation (TGT) between $62.01 and $323.24 per share, versus a market price of $154.26. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is TGT overvalued or undervalued?
At $154.26 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call TGT overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for TGT?
A WACC of 9.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Target stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Target Corporation (TGT) is $62.01 – $323.24 against a market price of $154.26. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Target (TGT) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Target Corporation (TGT) is $62.01 – $323.24, built on a 9.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Target stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 10.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $154.26. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Target (TGT) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Target Corporation (TGT): WEINSTEIN MARK A., Executive Officer, grant / award on 2026-09-30. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.