Is NKE overvalued or undervalued?

At $37.13 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call NKE overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for NKE?

A WACC of 9.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is NIKE stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is $32.89 – $38.34 against a market price of $37.13. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

NIKE (NKE) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is $32.89 – $38.34, built on a 9.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into NIKE stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of −1.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $37.13. A model estimate, not investment advice.

NIKE (NKE) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Hill Elliott, Director, PRESIDENT & CEO, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-10-14. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

NKE · Intrinsic value

Is NIKE, Inc. (NKE) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: NIKE, Inc. (NKE) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $32.89 – $38.34 for NIKE, Inc. (NKE), against the delayed market price of $37.13: priced within our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full NKE analysis

What is NKE worth?

Fair-value range: $32.89 – $38.34; A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
Market price: $37.13
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Priced within our range

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC · Prices are delayed.We publish this company as a range by design, not because our valuation lenses disagree, and we do not collapse it to a single number. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a range.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Priced within our range.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −1.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.6% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is NKE's TickerWorth Score?

D45/100

Scores lower than most companies we compare it with

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: strong balance sheet. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.

Value · 54 of 100
Cheaper than 54% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 48 of 100
Quality · 50 of 100
More profitable than 50% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 74 of 100
Financially stronger than 74% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 14 of 100
Growing faster than 14% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 12 of 100
Outperformed 12% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE CYCLICAL / RANGE-ONLY FLAG FIRES, AND IT IS FORCED BY GUIDANCE, NOT CHOSEN. Year 1 is -8% because Nike guides FY2027 revenue down high-single digits; the site's mechanical test (any negative revenue-growth year) therefore labels this forecast a downturn and publishes it as a range. Nike is not a classic cyclical - this is a company-specific reset - but changing the Year-1 input to dodge the flag would mean overriding management's own outlook, so the flag is left to fire. The final-year margin (11.5%) is well ABOVE the base year, so only the growth arm triggers, not the margin-fade arm.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~77% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - above the 75% line. Years 1-2 are deliberately weak, so most of the value sits in the recovered steady state. The real bet is the FY2031 margin, not the five-year path.
THE MARGIN RECOVERY IS THE WHOLE MODEL. Ending at 11.5% gives the base value; ending at 13% (the old FY2019-24 average, i.e. tariffs fully mitigated) gives ~$37; stalling at 8% gives ~$24. Every $1/share is roughly 0.4 points of FY2031 margin; ~11.9% would match today's price. This is my judgement, not guidance: Nike has given no long-term margin target since the turnaround began and will set one at the November Investor Day.
YEAR-1 MARGIN IS DERIVED, NOT STATED. Nike guided EPS ($1.15-$1.35 adjusted), revenue (HSD decline) and tax (mid-20s), not operating margin. 4.9% is backed out of those three plus ~$0.3B of guided Pace charges; the EPS range alone spans roughly 4.5%-5.3%. A $0.10 EPS miss is ~$0.2B of EBIT.
TARIFF REGIME IS UNSETTLED. The IEEPA duties were struck down and refunded; this model does not attempt to forecast which replacement duties persist, at what rates, or for how long. It anchors to Nike's own $1.5B annualized gross-cost estimate (Q1 FY2026 10-Q) and to the fact that Q1 FY2027 product costs show no relief. Tariff removal is upside; escalation (Vietnam ~half of footwear supply) is downside.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~14% BELOW THE LAST REPORTED FCF ($1,885M modeled vs $2,184M FY2026) - inside the 20% line. Note the FY2026 figure is itself depressed by the uncollected IEEPA refund; FY2027's actual cash flow will include that ~$0.68B inflow (less tax), which the model does not count as it is a one-off.
DIVIDEND EXCEEDS MODELED FCF. Nike pays ~$2.4B a year in dividends (FY2026), more than the model's FY2027-FY2028 free cash flow. Management calls the dividend a 'very significant priority' supported 'under all scenarios'. The DCF values the business, not the payout policy, but a reader should know the dividend is being funded partly from the $8.4B cash pile until margins recover.
SBC of $715M (1.5% of revenue, FY2026) stays expensed inside operating income; dilution is carried by the diluted share count, which is drifting UP with buybacks paused.

Why NKE gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $37.13, NIKE, Inc. (NKE) sits inside our range of estimates: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $32.89 and $38.34 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts NIKE, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 77% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -1.0% annual revenue growth for NKE. Our base case instead compounds to about 1.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NKE's modeled DCF value ranges from about $24.87 to $48.97 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what NIKE, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NKE's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind NKE's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueNIKE FY2026 10-K (accession 0000320187-26-000088, filed 2026-07-15): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2026 = $46,398M: flat reported, -2% currency-neutral, vs FY2025 $46,309M. Still 9.7% below the FY2024 peak of $51,362M. Mix inside the flat total is not flat: NIKE Brand wholesale +6% ($27.5B), NIKE Direct -6% ($17.7B, Digital -12%), Greater China -11% ($5.85B), Converse -31% ($1.17B), North America +5% ($20.5B). CROSS-CHECK, latest quarter: Q1 FY2027 (to 2026-08-31) revenue $11,213M, -4% reported / -5% currency-neutral, Greater China -26% cn; TTM through Q1 FY2027 = $45,891M. The base is left at the filed full year - the decline belongs in the forecast, where Year 1 carries it.	$46,398,000,000	NIKE FY2026 10-K (accession 0000320187-26-000088, filed 2026-07-15): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2026 = $46,398M: flat reported, -2% currency-neutral, vs FY2025 $46,309M. Still 9.7% below the FY2024 peak of $51,362M. Mix inside the flat total is not flat: NIKE Brand wholesale +6% ($27.5B), NIKE Direct -6% ($17.7B, Digital -12%), Greater China -11% ($5.85B), Converse -31% ($1.17B), North America +5% ($20.5B). CROSS-CHECK, latest quarter: Q1 FY2027 (to 2026-08-31) revenue $11,213M, -4% reported / -5% currency-neutral, Greater China -26% cn; TTM through Q1 FY2027 = $45,891M. The base is left at the filed full year - the decline belongs in the forecast, where Year 1 carries it.
Base EBIT marginNIKE FY2026 10-K (accession 0000320187-26-000088, filed 2026-07-15): OPERATING margin, derived: gross profit $19,911M - total selling & administrative expense $16,114M = $3,797M / $46,398M = 8.18%. Nike's own non-GAAP 'EBIT' is $3,850M (8.3%) because it also includes $53M of other (income), mostly FX remeasurement - excluded here as non-operating. TWO ITEMS INSIDE THIS NUMBER THAT A READER MUST KNOW: (1) Q4 cost of sales carries a ONE-TIME $986M benefit for the expected recovery of IEEPA tariffs after the Supreme Court's 2026-02-20 ruling, which the 10-K says 'largely offset[s] the impact of the IEEPA tariffs recognized during fiscal 2026' - so FY2026 is roughly a tariff-NEUTRAL year, which the future will not be; ex-recovery the margin is 6.06%. (2) $385M of employee severance (March 2026 cost realignment) depresses it; ex-severance and ex-recovery it is 6.89%. History for scale, same derivation: FY2019 12.2%, FY2021 15.6%, FY2022 14.3%, FY2023 11.5%, FY2024 12.3%, FY2025 8.0%. CROSS-CHECK Q1 FY2027: $4,798M - $3,910M = $888M / $11,213M = 7.92% (gross margin +60bp to 42.8% on lower warehousing/logistics; S&A -3%). This base figure does not drive the cash flows - the forecast margins do - but it is the 'peak' the site's cyclical test measures against.	8.2%	NIKE FY2026 10-K (accession 0000320187-26-000088, filed 2026-07-15): OPERATING margin, derived: gross profit $19,911M - total selling & administrative expense $16,114M = $3,797M / $46,398M = 8.18%. Nike's own non-GAAP 'EBIT' is $3,850M (8.3%) because it also includes $53M of other (income), mostly FX remeasurement - excluded here as non-operating. TWO ITEMS INSIDE THIS NUMBER THAT A READER MUST KNOW: (1) Q4 cost of sales carries a ONE-TIME $986M benefit for the expected recovery of IEEPA tariffs after the Supreme Court's 2026-02-20 ruling, which the 10-K says 'largely offset[s] the impact of the IEEPA tariffs recognized during fiscal 2026' - so FY2026 is roughly a tariff-NEUTRAL year, which the future will not be; ex-recovery the margin is 6.06%. (2) $385M of employee severance (March 2026 cost realignment) depresses it; ex-severance and ex-recovery it is 6.89%. History for scale, same derivation: FY2019 12.2%, FY2021 15.6%, FY2022 14.3%, FY2023 11.5%, FY2024 12.3%, FY2025 8.0%. CROSS-CHECK Q1 FY2027: $4,798M - $3,910M = $888M / $11,213M = 7.92% (gross margin +60bp to 42.8% on lower warehousing/logistics; S&A -3%). This base figure does not drive the cash flows - the forecast margins do - but it is the 'peak' the site's cyclical test measures against.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	-8% → 2% → 5% → 5% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance / yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.11, used AS PUBLISHED - no normalization. Considered and rejected: Nike's long-run beta was below 1 when it was a steady compounder, and a reader could argue for ~0.9-1.0 as the 'through-cycle' figure. But the last five years of monthly returns ARE the turnaround - a 13-year-low share price, two guidance cuts, a CEO and CFO change - and that risk is current, not historical noise. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $2.2/share here; a 0.95 beta would give $36.49 (+$3.6). A beta of ~1.06 alone would match today's price.	1.11	Yahoo Finance / yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.11, used AS PUBLISHED - no normalization. Considered and rejected: Nike's long-run beta was below 1 when it was a steady compounder, and a reader could argue for ~0.9-1.0 as the 'through-cycle' figure. But the last five years of monthly returns ARE the turnaround - a 13-year-low share price, two guidance cuts, a CEO and CFO change - and that risk is current, not historical noise. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $2.2/share here; a 0.95 beta would give $36.49 (+$3.6). A beta of ~1.06 alone would match today's price.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP). Reasonable for Nike, whose revenue compounded ~5.9% FY2018-FY2024 and whose global athletic-footwear and apparel category has historically grown at or above GDP; it is NOT a call that Nike regains share. A 2.0% rate takes ~$1.7/share off ($31.20); ~2.75% would match today's price. Must remain well below the 9.95% WACC.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP). Reasonable for Nike, whose revenue compounded ~5.9% FY2018-FY2024 and whose global athletic-footwear and apparel category has historically grown at or above GDP; it is NOT a call that Nike regains share. A 2.0% rate takes ~$1.7/share off ($31.20); ~2.75% would match today's price. Must remain well below the 9.95% WACC.
Diluted sharesNIKE Q1 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0000320187-26-000193, filed 2026-10-02): Q1 FY2027 weighted-average diluted shares 1,484.2M (basic 1,483.6M); FY2026 full-year diluted 1,481.0M. Rising slightly: buybacks under the $18B program have been PAUSED since Q1 FY2026 (no repurchases in Q1 FY27; $123M in all of FY2026), so SBC issuance is not being offset. Diluted count used so SBC dilution is captured.	1,484M	NIKE Q1 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0000320187-26-000193, filed 2026-10-02): Q1 FY2027 weighted-average diluted shares 1,484.2M (basic 1,483.6M); FY2026 full-year diluted 1,481.0M. Rising slightly: buybacks under the $18B program have been PAUSED since Q1 FY2026 (no repurchases in Q1 FY27; $123M in all of FY2026), so SBC issuance is not being offset. Diluted count used so SBC dilution is captured.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC	$37.13	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC

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What does NIKE, Inc. do?

What does it do?

NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company offers its products under the NIKE, Jordan, Converse, Jumpman, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. It operates in the Footwear & Accessories industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 73,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $45.9B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $8 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 7.9%), after a 43% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 6.7% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.7× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at NKE filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for NIKE, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
14 Oct 2026	Hill Elliott	Director, PRESIDENT & CEO	Shares withheld (tax)	$199,084.55	Form 4 for Hill Elliott (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Arnault Alexandre	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Arnault Alexandre (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
9 Sept 2026	McCartney Philip	EVP: CHIEF INN,PROD&DSG OFCR	Open-market sale	$96,192.81	Form 4 for McCartney Philip (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
9 Sept 2026	Leinwand Robert	EVP: Chief Legal Officer	Open-market sale	$137,053.14	Form 4 for Leinwand Robert (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
9 Sept 2026	Alagirisamy Venkatesh	EVP: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	Open-market sale	$137,992.89	Form 4 for Alagirisamy Venkatesh (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
8 Sept 2026	SWAN ROBERT HOLMES	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for SWAN ROBERT HOLMES (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is NKE's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put NIKE, Inc. (NKE) between $32.89 and $38.34 per share, versus a market price of $37.13. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is NKE overvalued or undervalued?
At $37.13 the price sits inside our range of estimates. We don't call NKE overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NKE?
A WACC of 9.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is NIKE stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is $32.89 – $38.34 against a market price of $37.13. Priced within our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
NIKE (NKE) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is $32.89 – $38.34, built on a 9.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into NIKE stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −1.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $37.13. A model estimate, not investment advice.
NIKE (NKE) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Hill Elliott, Director, PRESIDENT & CEO, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-10-14. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.