Is LULU overvalued or undervalued?

At $95.80 the price sits below every lens we ran. We don't call LULU overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for LULU?

A WACC of 10.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is lululemon athletica stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is $126.92 – $222.04 against a market price of $95.80. Priced below our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

lululemon athletica (LULU) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is $126.92 – $222.04, built on a 10.7% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into lululemon athletica stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of −10.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 0.5% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $95.80. A model estimate, not investment advice.

lululemon athletica (LULU) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for lululemon athletica inc. (LULU): NEUBURGER NICOLE, Chief Brand Officer, grant / award on 2026-03-19. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

LULU · Intrinsic value

Is lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $126.92 – $222.04 for lululemon athletica inc. (LULU), against the delayed market price of $95.80: priced below our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full LULU analysis

What is LULU worth?

Fair-value range: $126.92 – $222.04; A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
Market price: $95.80
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Priced below our range

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 UTC · Prices are delayed.We publish this company as a range by design, not because our valuation lenses disagree, and we do not collapse it to a single number. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a range.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Priced below our range.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −10.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 0.5% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is LULU's TickerWorth Score?

A64/100

Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.

Value · 82 of 100
Cheaper than 82% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 100 of 100
Quality · 70 of 100
More profitable than 70% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 78 of 100
Financially stronger than 78% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 12 of 100
Growing faster than 12% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 7 of 100
Outperformed 7% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE SITE WILL SHOW THIS AS A RANGE ONLY. The negative Year-1 growth (management's guidance) fires the mechanical cyclical flag. The model itself does not assume a cyclical peak-and-fade; it assumes a trough in FY2026-27 and a partial recovery. The point value $126.92 is the base case of that range.
YEARS 2-5 ARE JUDGEMENT, AND THE RECOVERY IS THE BET. Management guides only FY2026. Everything after — a further -3% in FY2027, then +3.5-4.5% growth and margins climbing back to 17% — is mine. If the H2 FY2026 run-rate of ~-11% does not stabilize, or margins stay near FY2026's underlying ~13%, the value falls toward the market price: flat revenue at a flat 14.6% margin after Year 1 gives about $109.
BETA NORMALIZED UP from the published 0.864 to 1.10 on peer evidence (Nike 1.11, Deckers 1.15, adidas 1.19). Lowers the value by ~$20/share; the published beta gives $146.90.
LEASES ARE OUT OF BOTH DEBT AND THE EBIT ADJUSTMENT. $2.14B of lease liabilities are not in net debt; the ~$406M a year of lease cost stays inside EBIT as an operating expense. Consistent, but it means WACC is 100% equity and the 'net cash' figure overstates financial flexibility for a retailer with 825 leased stores.
FREE-CASH-FLOW CROSS-CHECK. Year-1 FCF in the model is ~$916M, within 1% of FY2025's reported $921.7M, but ~32% below the TTM $1,354M — the TTM figure is flattered by a ~$465M working-capital and tax-timing swing in H1 FY2026 that the 10-Q attributes to inventories and tax payments, which should not be capitalized.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~71% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — under the 75% line, but most of the answer still rests on the steady state after FY2030.
NOT MODELLED: (a) up to ~$95M of further IEEPA refunds (paid ~$230M, received $134.5M; no asset recognized) — upside of well under $1/share after tax; (b) two consumer class actions (Neuman, E.D. Mich.; Alsaady, W.D. Wash.) seeking restitution of the tariff-cost component of prices — unquantified downside; (c) any restructuring charge a new CEO may take.
SBC is small and currently depressed ($61.8M in FY2025 after performance-award reversals; $49.7M in H1 FY2026) and stays expensed inside GAAP EBIT; dilution is captured by the diluted share count.

Why LULU gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $95.80, lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) sits below every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $126.92 and $222.04 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts lululemon athletica inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 71% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -10.1% annual revenue growth for LULU. Our base case instead compounds to about 0.5% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, LULU's modeled DCF value ranges from about $101.95 to $173.41 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what lululemon athletica inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of LULU's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind LULU's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenuelululemon FY2025 10-K (accession 0001397187-26-000020, filed 2026-03-17): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, fiscal year 2025-02-03 to 2026-02-01: $11,102,600K. +4.9% on FY2024's $10,588.1M, which was a 53-WEEK year; the Q4 release (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-03-17) puts growth ex the 53rd week at +7% (+6% constant dollar). The mix inside that number is the story: Americas -1% (comps -3%), International +22%. CROSS-CHECK, TTM to 2026-08-02: H1 FY2026 revenue $4,887.2M vs $4,895.9M in H1 FY2025 (-0.2%), so TTM revenue is $11,093.9M — essentially flat on the base. The decline is all ahead: Q2 was -4% and the guided second half is ~-11% (see forecast).	$11,102,600,000	lululemon FY2025 10-K (accession 0001397187-26-000020, filed 2026-03-17): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, fiscal year 2025-02-03 to 2026-02-01: $11,102,600K. +4.9% on FY2024's $10,588.1M, which was a 53-WEEK year; the Q4 release (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-03-17) puts growth ex the 53rd week at +7% (+6% constant dollar). The mix inside that number is the story: Americas -1% (comps -3%), International +22%. CROSS-CHECK, TTM to 2026-08-02: H1 FY2026 revenue $4,887.2M vs $4,895.9M in H1 FY2025 (-0.2%), so TTM revenue is $11,093.9M — essentially flat on the base. The decline is all ahead: Q2 was -4% and the guided second half is ~-11% (see forecast).
Base EBIT marginlululemon FY2025 10-K (accession 0001397187-26-000020, filed 2026-03-17): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $2,210.6M / revenue $11,102.6M = 19.91% (the Q4 release states 19.9%, down 380bp YoY). GAAP, no adjustments: FY2025 carries no impairment or restructuring line (the last was the $74.5M Mirror write-off in FY2023) and only $15.2M of executive-transition cost, so there is nothing to normalize. LEASES: operating lease cost of $406.0M sits INSIDE this EBIT as rent, which is why lease liabilities are kept OUT of net debt — one treatment, applied on both sides. The 10-K attributes the 380bp drop mainly to US tariffs and the de minimis removal (unmitigated gross-profit hit ~$275M, ~2.5pp) plus markdowns. CROSS-CHECK, TTM to 2026-08-02: EBIT $1,978.8M (= $2,210.6M + H1 FY26 $730.6M - H1 FY25 $962.4M) on $11,093.9M = 17.8%, or 16.6% without the one-time $134.5M IEEPA tariff refund booked in Q2 FY26. THIS BASE YEAR IS THE PEAK THE MODEL MEASURES AGAINST — the forecast does not return to it.	19.9%	lululemon FY2025 10-K (accession 0001397187-26-000020, filed 2026-03-17): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $2,210.6M / revenue $11,102.6M = 19.91% (the Q4 release states 19.9%, down 380bp YoY). GAAP, no adjustments: FY2025 carries no impairment or restructuring line (the last was the $74.5M Mirror write-off in FY2023) and only $15.2M of executive-transition cost, so there is nothing to normalize. LEASES: operating lease cost of $406.0M sits INSIDE this EBIT as rent, which is why lease liabilities are kept OUT of net debt — one treatment, applied on both sides. The 10-K attributes the 380bp drop mainly to US tariffs and the de minimis removal (unmitigated gross-profit hit ~$275M, ~2.5pp) plus markdowns. CROSS-CHECK, TTM to 2026-08-02: EBIT $1,978.8M (= $2,210.6M + H1 FY26 $730.6M - H1 FY25 $962.4M) on $11,093.9M = 17.8%, or 16.6% without the one-time $134.5M IEEPA tariff refund booked in Q2 FY26. THIS BASE YEAR IS THE PEAK THE MODEL MEASURES AGAINST — the forecast does not return to it.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	-6% → -3% → 4% → 4% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (published LULU beta 0.864; peer betas from the same yfinance feed, read 2026-10-03): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.864. NORMALIZED UP to 1.10, which is CONSERVATIVE: it raises the discount rate (cost of equity 9.56% -> 10.74%) and LOWERS the value, by about $20/share. Reason: 0.864 is below every large athletic-apparel peer on the same feed at the same time — Nike 1.11, Deckers 1.15, adidas ADR 1.19 (and Abercrombie 0.97, Under Armour 1.62, Gap 2.06, On 2.08) — and a 60-observation monthly regression carries a standard error of roughly 0.2-0.3, so a single company's figure is a noisy read of an industry exposure. LULU has no debt, so its equity beta IS its asset beta and can be compared directly with Deckers (also debt-free) at 1.15. 1.10 is the large-cap brand cluster (Nike/Deckers/adidas ~1.1-1.2), shaded slightly toward LULU's own figure. A discretionary brand whose US comps just fell 12% is not a below-market-risk asset. Using the published 0.864 instead gives $146.90/share.	1.10	ESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (published LULU beta 0.864; peer betas from the same yfinance feed, read 2026-10-03): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.864. NORMALIZED UP to 1.10, which is CONSERVATIVE: it raises the discount rate (cost of equity 9.56% -> 10.74%) and LOWERS the value, by about $20/share. Reason: 0.864 is below every large athletic-apparel peer on the same feed at the same time — Nike 1.11, Deckers 1.15, adidas ADR 1.19 (and Abercrombie 0.97, Under Armour 1.62, Gap 2.06, On 2.08) — and a 60-observation monthly regression carries a standard error of roughly 0.2-0.3, so a single company's figure is a noisy read of an industry exposure. LULU has no debt, so its equity beta IS its asset beta and can be compared directly with Deckers (also debt-free) at 1.15. 1.10 is the large-cap brand cluster (Nike/Deckers/adidas ~1.1-1.2), shaded slightly toward LULU's own figure. A discretionary brand whose US comps just fell 12% is not a below-market-risk asset. Using the published 0.864 instead gives $146.90/share.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Must stay below the 10.74% WACC; it does with a wide margin. Not generous for a global brand still opening stores internationally, but this model has just watched the brand's home market shrink 8% in a quarter, so no premium is taken.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Must stay below the 10.74% WACC; it does with a wide margin. Not generous for a global brand still opening stores internationally, but this model has just watched the brand's home market shrink 8% in a quarter, so no premium is taken.
Diluted shareslululemon Q2 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001397187-26-000127, filed 2026-09-03): Q2 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 112,919K (includes the exchangeable shares). DELIBERATELY CONSERVATIVE because buybacks are running hard: the count was 119.7M a year earlier, 2.7M shares were repurchased in Q2 alone ($330.0M), and by 2026-08-28 economic shares were 110.71M (105,594,064 common + 5,115,961 exchangeable). Using that period-end count would add ~2% (~$2.50/share). No credit is given for FUTURE buybacks — they spend free cash flow the model already counts. $712.5M of authorization remained at 2026-08-02.	113M	lululemon Q2 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001397187-26-000127, filed 2026-09-03): Q2 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 112,919K (includes the exchangeable shares). DELIBERATELY CONSERVATIVE because buybacks are running hard: the count was 119.7M a year earlier, 2.7M shares were repurchased in Q2 alone ($330.0M), and by 2026-08-28 economic shares were 110.71M (105,594,064 common + 5,115,961 exchangeable). Using that period-end count would add ~2% (~$2.50/share). No credit is given for FUTURE buybacks — they spend free cash flow the model already counts. $712.5M of authorization remained at 2026-08-02.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:05 UTC	$95.80	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:05 UTC

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What does lululemon athletica inc. do?

What does it do?

Lululemon Athletica designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, jackets, and fitness-inspired accessories sold through company-operated stores, e-commerce, outlets, a re-commerce program called Like New, and other retail partners across the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, and other international markets.

How does it make money?

Lululemon generates revenue by selling athletic apparel and accessories through multiple channels including company-operated stores, e-commerce, outlet stores, and partnerships with yoga and fitness studios. The company reported total revenue of $11.1 billion with a gross margin of 54.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 55 cents of each sales dollar after accounting for direct costs.

Is it financially healthy?

Lululemon shows solid financial health with an operating margin of 13.2%, a net margin of 12.8%, and a current ratio of 2.19 (indicating it has $2.19 in current assets for every $1 in current liabilities). The company carries moderate debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45, suggesting conservative leverage.

Who at LULU filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for lululemon athletica inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
19 Mar 2026	NEUBURGER NICOLE	Chief Brand Officer	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for NEUBURGER NICOLE (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4).

Common questions

What is LULU's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) between $126.92 and $222.04 per share, versus a market price of $95.80. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is LULU overvalued or undervalued?
At $95.80 the price sits below every lens we ran. We don't call LULU overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for LULU?
A WACC of 10.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is lululemon athletica stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is $126.92 – $222.04 against a market price of $95.80. Priced below our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
lululemon athletica (LULU) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is $126.92 – $222.04, built on a 10.7% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into lululemon athletica stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −10.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 0.5% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $95.80. A model estimate, not investment advice.
lululemon athletica (LULU) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for lululemon athletica inc. (LULU): NEUBURGER NICOLE, Chief Brand Officer, grant / award on 2026-03-19. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.