What is CMG's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is $18.87 per share, versus a market price of $29.89 (58% above fair value).

Is CMG overvalued or undervalued?

On our blended fair value CMG looks overvalued vs fair value at $29.89. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for CMG?

A WACC of 9.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is $18.87 against a market price of $29.89. Our read: 58% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is $18.87, built on a 9.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): Rymer Adam T, Chief Financial Officer, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

CMG · Intrinsic value

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) trades at the delayed market price of $29.89 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $18.87 a share (58% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full CMG analysis

Is CMG overvalued?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair value: $18.87
Market price: $29.89
Downside to fair value: 36.9%
Verdict: 58% above fair value

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: 58% above fair value.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is CMG's TickerWorth Score?

F37/100

Far above our estimate — the business scores well

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.

Value · 26 of 100
Cheaper than 26% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 20 of 100
Quality · 68 of 100
More profitable than 68% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 29 of 100
Financially stronger than 29% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 50 of 100
Growing faster than 50% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 18 of 100
Outperformed 18% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

YEAR-1 FCF IS ~37% BELOW THE FCF MEMO ($910M modelled vs $1,448M computed for FY2025) — past the 20% line, so stated. It decomposes: (1) restating FY2025 on the model's basis — taxing GAAP EBIT at 25%, keeping $119.5M of stock compensation as a cost, and counting the investment portfolio in net cash rather than its ~$56M of after-tax interest income — gives ~$1,147M; (2) the 2026 margin squeeze (14.0% vs 16.2%) takes ~$100M of NOPAT; (3) the guided capex step-up from $666M to $834M takes ~$168M. Nothing else.
THE VALUE IS FAR BELOW THE PRICE, AND THE MAIN REASON IS STRUCTURAL, NOT A VIEW THAT CHIPOTLE IS BROKEN. A five-year forecast that ends with revenue still growing 7% and a terminal rate of 2.5% values Chipotle at an implied ~6.6x 2030 EBITDA — a multiple for a no-growth restaurant. The reverse DCF says the price needs ~28% revenue growth a year, or a 31% operating margin, or 7% growth forever: none is plausible, and none is what the market is literally pricing — it is pricing a longer runway than any five-year window can hold. Treat this as a floor-style read on the house method, not a target.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~74% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE, just under the 75% line. The sensitivity range is narrow in dollars (~$11.40 to ~$21.55) but every point in it is far below the market, which says the gap is about the length of the growth runway, not the discount rate.
TERMINAL REINVESTMENT IS CONSERVATIVE. Capex of 5.8% of revenue is carried into the perpetuity, which funds ~7% unit growth while the perpetuity grows 2.5%; a steady state needs nearer ~4%. At 4.5% the value is ~$16.75.
FOOD SAFETY IS LIVE AGAIN. Chipotle pulled jalapenos linked to a Salmonella Javiana outbreak on 2026-08-04 and its 8-K said guidance 'did not include a financial impact from these matters'; the separate cyclospora scare cost ~2 points of sales in late July per management. The 2015-2018 outbreaks show how long a food-safety hit to traffic can last. The H2 2026 comp assumption (~+1.5%) does not model a repeat of that episode.
MARGIN PATH IS THE SOFTEST INPUT. 2026 is modelled at 14.0% on H1's 14.3% and a second half 1.3 points below last year. If beef and freight inflation persist and the food-safety headwinds bite, Q3 and Q4 could run below that. The recovery to 15.7% by 2030 is judgement, not guidance.
SBC of $119.5M in FY2025 (1.0% of revenue; $54.5M in H1 2026, lower as CEO-transition retention awards roll off) is expensed inside GAAP EBIT and not added back; buybacks more than offset the dilution.

CMG DCF valuation: what the price assumes

At a recent price of $29.89, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) trades 58% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $18.87 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices CMG overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -36.9% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values CMG at about $14.77 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — CMG would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 7.9% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CMG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $11.39 to $21.55 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CMG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind CMG's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueChipotle FY2025 10-K (accession 0001058090-26-000009, filed 2026-02-04); Q4/FY2025 release 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001058090-26-000007, filed 2026-02-03): Total revenue FY2025 $11,925.6M (+5.4% vs FY2024 $11,313.9M): food and beverage $11,866.1M, delivery service $59.6M. The growth was ALL new restaurants: comparable restaurant sales FELL 1.7% (transactions -2.9%, average check +1.2%) while Chipotle opened a record 334 company-owned restaurants (3,726 -> 4,042). Q4 2025 also carried $27.0M of gift-card breakage ($19.1M more than Q4 2024), which does not touch comps and makes Q4 2026 a slightly harder revenue compare. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $6,436.8M, +8.4% on H1 2025's $5,938.6M, on comps of +1.4% (Q1 +0.5%, Q2 +2.2%) and company-owned units up 9.0% year on year (4,186 vs 3,839 at 30 June). TTM through 2026-06-30 = $12,423.8M. The base is unchanged; the new half-year belongs in Year 1. All per-share figures in this file are on the post-June-2024 50-for-1 split basis, as are the filings.	$11,925,600,000	Chipotle FY2025 10-K (accession 0001058090-26-000009, filed 2026-02-04); Q4/FY2025 release 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001058090-26-000007, filed 2026-02-03): Total revenue FY2025 $11,925.6M (+5.4% vs FY2024 $11,313.9M): food and beverage $11,866.1M, delivery service $59.6M. The growth was ALL new restaurants: comparable restaurant sales FELL 1.7% (transactions -2.9%, average check +1.2%) while Chipotle opened a record 334 company-owned restaurants (3,726 -> 4,042). Q4 2025 also carried $27.0M of gift-card breakage ($19.1M more than Q4 2024), which does not touch comps and makes Q4 2026 a slightly harder revenue compare. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $6,436.8M, +8.4% on H1 2025's $5,938.6M, on comps of +1.4% (Q1 +0.5%, Q2 +2.2%) and company-owned units up 9.0% year on year (4,186 vs 3,839 at 30 June). TTM through 2026-06-30 = $12,423.8M. The base is unchanged; the new half-year belongs in Year 1. All per-share figures in this file are on the post-June-2024 50-for-1 split basis, as are the filings.
Base EBIT marginChipotle Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001058090-26-000007, filed 2026-02-03): GAAP income from operations $1,935.8M / revenue $11,925.6M = 16.23% (FY2024 16.94%). GAAP is used as reported, including ~$30M of items Chipotle adjusts out (legal reserves, CEO-transition retention awards, impairments), because some version of them recurs every year. RENT STAYS IN EBIT: fixed operating-lease cost of $544.4M (total lease cost $671.1M, 10-K Leases note) is charged inside occupancy and other operating costs, which is why operating leases are kept OUT of net debt (see market.net_debt). The margin is falling, and that is the story of this model: restaurant-level margin 25.4% in FY2025 vs 26.7% in FY2024, as labor rose to 25.1% of revenue on lower restaurant volumes. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: GAAP operating margin 14.33% ($922.7M / $6,436.8M) vs 17.48% in H1 2025 — down 3.1 points. Q2 2026 alone was 15.7% vs 18.2% (restaurant-level 25.2% vs 27.4%): food, beverage and packaging 29.7% vs 28.9% (beef and freight inflation, higher protein portions), labor 25.0% vs 24.7%, other operating costs 14.9% vs 14.0% (marketing). TTM operating margin 14.65% ($1,820.2M / $12,423.8M).	16.2%	Chipotle Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001058090-26-000007, filed 2026-02-03): GAAP income from operations $1,935.8M / revenue $11,925.6M = 16.23% (FY2024 16.94%). GAAP is used as reported, including ~$30M of items Chipotle adjusts out (legal reserves, CEO-transition retention awards, impairments), because some version of them recurs every year. RENT STAYS IN EBIT: fixed operating-lease cost of $544.4M (total lease cost $671.1M, 10-K Leases note) is charged inside occupancy and other operating costs, which is why operating leases are kept OUT of net debt (see market.net_debt). The margin is falling, and that is the story of this model: restaurant-level margin 25.4% in FY2025 vs 26.7% in FY2024, as labor rose to 25.1% of revenue on lower restaurant volumes. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: GAAP operating margin 14.33% ($922.7M / $6,436.8M) vs 17.48% in H1 2025 — down 3.1 points. Q2 2026 alone was 15.7% vs 18.2% (restaurant-level 25.2% vs 27.4%): food, beverage and packaging 29.7% vs 28.9% (beef and freight inflation, higher protein portions), labor 25.0% vs 24.7%, other operating costs 14.9% vs 14.0% (marketing). TTM operating margin 14.65% ($1,820.2M / $12,423.8M).
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	8% → 8% → 8% → 8% → 7%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.937 (yfinance, read 2026-10-03), used UNADJUSTED. No normalization: it sits where a growth restaurant with no debt should (above McDonald's 0.41, below 1), the Blume adjustment would barely move it (0.96), and the five-year window is not dominated by a single stock-specific event the way McDonald's is. The window does include the June 2024 50-for-1 split, which does not affect returns. Each 0.1 of beta is worth about $0.90-1.10/share (0.8 gives ~$16.27; 1.1 gives ~$13.30).	0.94	Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.937 (yfinance, read 2026-10-03), used UNADJUSTED. No normalization: it sits where a growth restaurant with no debt should (above McDonald's 0.41, below 1), the Blume adjustment would barely move it (0.96), and the five-year window is not dominated by a single stock-specific event the way McDonald's is. The window does include the June 2024 50-for-1 split, which does not affect returns. Each 0.1 of beta is worth about $0.90-1.10/share (0.8 gives ~$16.27; 1.1 gives ~$13.30).
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. FLAG: for Chipotle this is CONSERVATIVE. The forecast ends in 2030 with revenue still growing 7% and roughly 5,700 company-owned restaurants against a stated long-term goal of 7,000 in the U.S. and Canada alone, so the step from 7% to 2.5% is a cliff that the real business is unlikely to fall off in one year. I keep the house rate rather than override it, and say so: 3.0% gives ~$15.58 (+$0.80), 2.0% gives ~$14.06. Must remain < WACC of 9.93%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. FLAG: for Chipotle this is CONSERVATIVE. The forecast ends in 2030 with revenue still growing 7% and roughly 5,700 company-owned restaurants against a stated long-term goal of 7,000 in the U.S. and Canada alone, so the step from 7% to 2.5% is a cliff that the real business is unlikely to fall off in one year. I keep the house rate rather than override it, and say so: 3.0% gives ~$15.58 (+$0.80), 2.0% gives ~$14.06. Must remain < WACC of 9.93%.
Diluted sharesChipotle Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001058090-26-000066, filed 2026-07-31): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 1,279,064K (H1 2026 1,290,462K; FY2025 1,342,616K), post-split. 1,265.4M were outstanding at 2026-07-24. The count is FALLING fast — ~5% in a year — because Chipotle is spending most of its cash on buybacks: $2,425.5M in FY2025 and $1,354.9M in H1 2026 (Q2 $630.7M at an average $32.55), with $1.7B of authorization left after a fresh $1.3B on 2026-06-11. The model does not project further buybacks; it values the business and divides by today's count.	1,279M	Chipotle Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001058090-26-000066, filed 2026-07-31): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 1,279,064K (H1 2026 1,290,462K; FY2025 1,342,616K), post-split. 1,265.4M were outstanding at 2026-07-24. The count is FALLING fast — ~5% in a year — because Chipotle is spending most of its cash on buybacks: $2,425.5M in FY2025 and $1,354.9M in H1 2026 (Q2 $630.7M at an average $32.55), with $1.7B of authorization left after a fresh $1.3B on 2026-06-11. The model does not project further buybacks; it values the business and divides by today's count.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC	$29.89	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC

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What does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The company sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids' meals, chips, and sides. It operates in the Restaurants industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 140,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $12.4B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $16 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 16.1%), after a 39% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 11.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (2.5× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.7× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at CMG filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
1 Oct 2026	Rymer Adam T	Chief Financial Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$103,933.35	Form 4 for Rymer Adam T (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
17 Sept 2026	Sami Sabir	Director	Grant / award	$159,071.97	Form 4 for Sami Sabir (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Aug 2026	Rymer Adam T	Chief Financial Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$327,350.04	Form 4 for Rymer Adam T (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Aug 2026	Eskenazi Ilene	Chief Legal and HR Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$695,248.29	Form 4 for Eskenazi Ilene (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Aug 2026	Garner Curtis E	Pres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off	Shares withheld (tax)	$973,368.78	Form 4 for Garner Curtis E (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Aug 2026	Boatwright Scott	Chief Executive Officer	Shares withheld (tax)	$1,112,411.38	Form 4 for Boatwright Scott (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is CMG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is $18.87 per share, versus a market price of $29.89 (58% above fair value).
Is CMG overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value CMG looks overvalued vs fair value at $29.89. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for CMG?
A WACC of 9.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is $18.87 against a market price of $29.89. Our read: 58% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is $18.87, built on a 9.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Chipotle Mexican Grill stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $29.89. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): Rymer Adam T, Chief Financial Officer, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.