What is SBUX's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is $44.51 per share, versus a market price of $97.52 (119% above fair value).

Is SBUX overvalued or undervalued?

On our blended fair value SBUX looks overvalued vs fair value at $97.52. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for SBUX?

A WACC of 9.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Starbucks stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is $44.51 against a market price of $97.52. Our read: 119% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Starbucks (SBUX) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is $44.51, built on a 9.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Starbucks stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 20.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $97.52. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Starbucks (SBUX) insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

SBUX · Intrinsic value

Is Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) trades at the delayed market price of $97.52 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 20.1% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $44.51 a share (119% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full SBUX analysis

Is SBUX overvalued?

Fair value: $44.51
Market price: $97.52
Downside to fair value: 54.4%
Verdict: 119% above fair value

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: 119% above fair value.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 20.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.1% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is SBUX's TickerWorth Score?

F34/100

Scores lower than almost every company we compare it with

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.

Value · 22 of 100
Cheaper than 22% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 6 of 100
Quality · 37 of 100
More profitable than 37% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 30 of 100
Financially stronger than 30% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 60 of 100
Growing faster than 60% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 69 of 100
Outperformed 69% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL DISAGREES WITH THE MARKET BY A LOT, AND THE REASON IS THE DISCOUNT RATE, NOT THE FORECAST. The forecast is close to management's own plan (FY2028 GAAP EPS ~$3.29 vs a $3.35-$4.00 non-GAAP target the CFO said the JV trims by ~$0.15). At a 9.47% WACC (beta 0.965 as published, 5.24% Treasury) that plan is worth roughly half the price. With every forecast input fixed, the price needs a WACC of ~5.9%; even a more generous plan (6% growth and a 17% margin by FY2030) needs ~6.5%. No single operating lever closes the gap on its own: it would take a ~31% FY2030 margin, ~37% annual growth in FY2028-30, or a 6.5% perpetuity.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~75% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — right at the house danger line. The implied exit multiple is only ~8x FY2030 EBITDA, which is what a 9.5% WACC and 2.5% growth produce; restaurant brands have historically traded far above that, which is the same disagreement seen from the other side.
YEAR 2 IS NEARLY FLAT (+0.5%) BY CONSTRUCTION. FY2027 laps $1.62B of China company-operated revenue in H1 FY2026. If organic growth ex-China comes in below ~4.2%, FY2027 revenue will print a DECLINE; the site's mechanical cyclical flag would then fire, but that would be a deconsolidation artefact, not evidence of a downturn. Zero FY2027 growth costs ~$0.2/share.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~18% ABOVE THE FY2025 REPORTED FCF MEMO ($2.87B modelled vs $2.44B reported) — under the 20% line but stated. It is not a forecast of better business: the reported figure is LEVERED and absorbed restructuring cash, while FY2026 capex (~$1.3B) is roughly half of FY2025's $2.3B. The low capex is NOT carried forward; Years 2-5 use 5% of revenue.
YEAR-1 REVENUE IS AT THE TOP OF GUIDANCE. 'Flat to slight growth' read literally implies ~0-1%; +2.0% is used because Q1-Q3 is +4.2% and Q4 would have to fall ~10% for a flat year. If Starbucks reports FY2026 nearer flat on 2026-10-29, the base for every later year is ~2% lower (~-$1/share).
COST OF DEBT RATING IS SECONDARY-SOURCED. Neither the 10-K nor the 10-Q states the ratings; BBB+/Baa1 comes from investmentgrade.com. Debt is only 11% of capital, so even a full notch of spread moves the value by well under $1/share.
SBC of $318.3M in FY2025 (0.9% of revenue) is already expensed inside GAAP EBIT; no further deduction. Dilution is captured by the 1,143.8M weighted-diluted count, which is not falling because buybacks are paused.

SBUX DCF valuation: what the price assumes

At a recent price of $97.52, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) trades 119% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $44.51 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices SBUX overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -54.4% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values SBUX at about $41.30 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Starbucks Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 20.1% annual revenue growth for SBUX. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SBUX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $28.92 to $67.40 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Starbucks Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SBUX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind SBUX's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueStarbucks FY2025 10-K (accession 0000829224-25-000114, filed 2025-11-14): Total net revenues for the 52 weeks ended 2025-09-28: $37,184.4M (+2.8% vs FY2024 $36,176.2M; FY2023 $35,975.6M). Segments: North America $27,373.1M, International $7,819.9M, Channel Development $1,871.7M, Corporate and Other $119.7M. Geographic note: U.S. $27,124.7M, CHINA $3,160.8M, other countries $6,898.9M. THE CHINA LINE IS WHY THIS BASE IS NOT THE GO-FORWARD COMPANY: Starbucks sold 60% of its China retail operations to Boyu Capital (closed 2026-04-02), so ~$3.2B of company-operated revenue leaves the consolidated top line and is replaced by licence royalties and product sales ($53M in Q3 FY2026). The base is kept AS REPORTED (the latest completed fiscal year with a filed 10-K) and the deconsolidation is carried in the Year-1 and Year-2 growth rates, not hidden by a pro-forma restatement. CROSS-CHECK: Q1-Q3 FY2026 revenue $28,769.3M, +4.2% on the same period of FY2025 ($27,615.4M); ex-China, the three quarters grew ~7%. FY2026 closed on 2026-09-27; its 10-K is not yet filed.	$37,184,400,000	Starbucks FY2025 10-K (accession 0000829224-25-000114, filed 2025-11-14): Total net revenues for the 52 weeks ended 2025-09-28: $37,184.4M (+2.8% vs FY2024 $36,176.2M; FY2023 $35,975.6M). Segments: North America $27,373.1M, International $7,819.9M, Channel Development $1,871.7M, Corporate and Other $119.7M. Geographic note: U.S. $27,124.7M, CHINA $3,160.8M, other countries $6,898.9M. THE CHINA LINE IS WHY THIS BASE IS NOT THE GO-FORWARD COMPANY: Starbucks sold 60% of its China retail operations to Boyu Capital (closed 2026-04-02), so ~$3.2B of company-operated revenue leaves the consolidated top line and is replaced by licence royalties and product sales ($53M in Q3 FY2026). The base is kept AS REPORTED (the latest completed fiscal year with a filed 10-K) and the deconsolidation is carried in the Year-1 and Year-2 growth rates, not hidden by a pro-forma restatement. CROSS-CHECK: Q1-Q3 FY2026 revenue $28,769.3M, +4.2% on the same period of FY2025 ($27,615.4M); ex-China, the three quarters grew ~7%. FY2026 closed on 2026-09-27; its 10-K is not yet filed.
Base EBIT marginStarbucks FY2025 10-K (accession 0000829224-25-000114, filed 2025-11-14): GAAP operating income $2,936.6M / revenue $37,184.4M = 7.90% (FY2024 15.0%, FY2023 16.3%). A TROUGH YEAR, and the base is not the forecast: FY2025 carries $892.0M of restructuring and impairments (the first 'Back to Starbucks' store closures and ~900 support-role cuts), offset by a $145.2M litigation-settlement credit. Starbucks' own non-GAAP margin was 9.9% (Q4/FY2025 release, accession 0000829224-25-000074). Operating income INCLUDES income from equity investees ($247.8M) — the North American Coffee Partnership and, from April 2026, Starbucks' 40% share of the China joint venture — which is why the retained China stake is not added to the net-debt bridge. RENT STAYS IN EBIT: operating-lease cost sits inside store operating expenses, so operating leases are kept out of debt (see market.net_debt). CROSS-CHECK: Q1-Q3 FY2026 GAAP margin 9.4% ($2,699.3M / $28,769.3M) after $415.8M of restructuring; non-GAAP 11.2%.	7.9%	Starbucks FY2025 10-K (accession 0000829224-25-000114, filed 2025-11-14): GAAP operating income $2,936.6M / revenue $37,184.4M = 7.90% (FY2024 15.0%, FY2023 16.3%). A TROUGH YEAR, and the base is not the forecast: FY2025 carries $892.0M of restructuring and impairments (the first 'Back to Starbucks' store closures and ~900 support-role cuts), offset by a $145.2M litigation-settlement credit. Starbucks' own non-GAAP margin was 9.9% (Q4/FY2025 release, accession 0000829224-25-000074). Operating income INCLUDES income from equity investees ($247.8M) — the North American Coffee Partnership and, from April 2026, Starbucks' 40% share of the China joint venture — which is why the retained China stake is not added to the net-debt bridge. RENT STAYS IN EBIT: operating-lease cost sits inside store operating expenses, so operating leases are kept out of debt (see market.net_debt). CROSS-CHECK: Q1-Q3 FY2026 GAAP margin 9.4% ($2,699.3M / $28,769.3M) after $415.8M of restructuring; non-GAAP 11.2%.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	2% → 0% → 4% → 4% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.965, read 2026-10-03 via yfinance, used AS PUBLISHED. No normalization: it is close to 1, a Blume adjustment would move it only to 0.98 (~-$0.4/share), and nothing in the window obviously distorts it the way McDonald's stock-specific slide distorts its 0.41. Gives a cost of equity of 10.07%. This is the input that most separates the model from the market — the price is only reached on a beta near 0.17 with everything else fixed (see explainer); each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $3-4/share.	0.96	Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.965, read 2026-10-03 via yfinance, used AS PUBLISHED. No normalization: it is close to 1, a Blume adjustment would move it only to 0.98 (~-$0.4/share), and nothing in the window obviously distorts it the way McDonald's stock-specific slide distorts its 0.41. Gives a cost of equity of 10.07%. This is the input that most separates the model from the market — the price is only reached on a beta near 0.17 with everything else fixed (see explainer); each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $3-4/share.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Not obviously generous or punitive here: management talks of a 'long runway' of new coffeehouses and the China JV aspires to 20,000 stores (from ~8,000), but that growth now accrues mostly to licensees and to a 40% equity stake, and North American unit growth has just been cut. 3.0% adds ~$3/share; 2.0% takes ~$2.7 off. Must remain < WACC of 9.47%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Not obviously generous or punitive here: management talks of a 'long runway' of new coffeehouses and the China JV aspires to 20,000 stores (from ~8,000), but that growth now accrues mostly to licensees and to a 40% equity stake, and North American unit growth has just been cut. 3.0% adds ~$3/share; 2.0% takes ~$2.7 off. Must remain < WACC of 9.47%.
Diluted sharesStarbucks Q3 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0000829224-26-000130, filed 2026-07-29): Q3 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 1,143.8M (Q1-Q3 1,143.0M; FY2025 1,139.8M); 1,139.8M outstanding at 2026-06-28. The count is FLAT TO RISING: Starbucks suspended buybacks during the turnaround (no repurchases in Q1-Q3 FY2026) while issuing to employees (SBC $290.4M year to date).	1,144M	Starbucks Q3 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0000829224-26-000130, filed 2026-07-29): Q3 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 1,143.8M (Q1-Q3 1,143.0M; FY2025 1,139.8M); 1,139.8M outstanding at 2026-06-28. The count is FLAT TO RISING: Starbucks suspended buybacks during the turnaround (no repurchases in Q1-Q3 FY2026) while issuing to employees (SBC $290.4M year to date).
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC	$97.52	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC

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What does Starbucks Corporation do?

What does it do?

Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. It operates in the Restaurants industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 381,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $38.3B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $13 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 12.9%), after a 22% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 5.2% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

SBUX insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Starbucks Corporation. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

Common questions

What is SBUX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is $44.51 per share, versus a market price of $97.52 (119% above fair value).
Is SBUX overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value SBUX looks overvalued vs fair value at $97.52. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SBUX?
A WACC of 9.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Starbucks stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is $44.51 against a market price of $97.52. Our read: 119% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Starbucks (SBUX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is $44.51, built on a 9.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Starbucks stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 20.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $97.52. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Starbucks (SBUX) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.