What is MCD's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is $232.00 per share, versus a market price of $242.97 (priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02).

Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?

Priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02 at $242.97. We don't call MCD overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for MCD?

A WACC of 7.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is McDonald's stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is $232.00 against a market price of $242.97. Our read: Priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

McDonald's (MCD) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is $232.00, built on a 7.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into McDonald's stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 4.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $242.97. A model estimate, not investment advice.

McDonald's (MCD) insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for McDonald's Corporation (MCD). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

MCD · Intrinsic value

Is McDonald's Corporation (MCD) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: McDonald's Corporation (MCD) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) trades at the delayed market price of $242.97 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 4.8% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $232.00 a share (priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full MCD analysis

Is MCD fairly valued?

Fair value: $232.00
Market price: $242.97
Downside to fair value: 4.5%
Verdict: Priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: Priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 4.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.9% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is MCD's TickerWorth Score?

D45/100

Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.

Value · 36 of 100
Cheaper than 36% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 46 of 100
Quality · 93 of 100
More profitable than 93% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 20 of 100
Financially stronger than 20% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 35 of 100
Growing faster than 35% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 21 of 100
Outperformed 21% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

BETA IS THE BIGGEST LEVER, AND IT CUTS THE OTHER WAY FROM THE HEADLINE. The published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.414; I use a Blume-adjusted 0.61, which lowers the value. On the published beta the model reads ~$269.54, i.e. ~16% ABOVE today's price. The difference between 'modestly overvalued' and 'clearly cheap' is one methodological choice about how to read a beta depressed by a stock-specific slide.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~80% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE, above the 75% line. With a WACC of only 7.58%, the gap to the 2.5% perpetuity is narrow and the sensitivity grid is wide (~$133 to ~$471). Treat $218.73 as the middle of a range, not a point.
THE 2030 MARGIN TARGET IS NOT TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. Management targets an ADJUSTED operating margin in the low-to-mid 50% range by 2030; the model reaches 49.0% on GAAP. Giving management 52% by 2030 lifts the value to ~$235; the haircut is the second-largest judgement call and it lowers the value.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~20% ABOVE THE REPORTED FCF MEMO ($8.65B modelled vs $7.19B reported for FY2025) — right at the threshold, so stated. It is not a forecast of better cash: the reported figure is LEVERED (after ~$1.6B of interest), the model's is unlevered. Adding after-tax interest back to FY2025 gives ~$8.43B, and Year 1 adds ~4.5% revenue growth; the 2026 capex step-up to $3.8B is already deducted.
RENT-RELIEF CASH TIMING IS APPROXIMATED, NOT MODELLED. Rent relief is paid out (or forgone) over 2027-2036 but amortized against revenue over ~10 years. The 12% capex intensity carries an estimated part of the cash-ahead-of-P&L gap; if McDonald's front-loads the ~$3.0-3.5B of rent relief inside 2027-2030 the near-term FCF is lower than modelled by a few hundred million dollars a year.
U.S. TRAFFIC IS NEGATIVE. Q2 2026 U.S. comparable sales +0.8% were driven by check, with comparable guest counts down; the CEO said the U.S. 'didn't execute at the level we needed' and replaced the U.S. president. The revenue path (4.0% fading to 3.5%) assumes 2027 gets back toward management's 3-4% comp expectation but not all the way. Zero revenue growth in 2027 alone would take ~$10/share off ($208.52).
SBC of $165M (0.6% of revenue) is expensed inside GAAP EBIT; immaterial here, and buybacks shrink the diluted count ~1% a year.

MCD DCF valuation, input by input

TickerWorth's fair value for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is $232.00 a share, against the delayed market price of $242.97 (priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values MCD at about $218.73 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts McDonald's Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 4.8% annual revenue growth for MCD. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.9% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MCD's modeled DCF value ranges from about $132.52 to $470.79 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what McDonald's Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MCD's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind MCD's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueMcDonald's FY2025 10-K (accession 0000063908-26-000035, filed 2026-02-24); Q4/FY2025 release 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000063908-26-000032): Total revenues FY2025 $26,885M (+4% reported, +2% constant currency, vs FY2024 $25,920M): franchised revenues $16,548M (rent + royalties, 62%), Company-operated sales $9,690M (36%), other $647M. Revenue is NOT the same thing as the ~$139B of Systemwide sales McDonald's headlines — ~95% of restaurants are franchised, and McDonald's books only its rent and royalty take on franchisee sales. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $13,616M, +6.4% on H1 2025's $12,799M (+3% constant currency — the weak dollar did half the work); TTM through 2026-06-30 = $27,702M. The base is unchanged; the new half-year belongs in Year 1.	$26,885,000,000	McDonald's FY2025 10-K (accession 0000063908-26-000035, filed 2026-02-24); Q4/FY2025 release 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000063908-26-000032): Total revenues FY2025 $26,885M (+4% reported, +2% constant currency, vs FY2024 $25,920M): franchised revenues $16,548M (rent + royalties, 62%), Company-operated sales $9,690M (36%), other $647M. Revenue is NOT the same thing as the ~$139B of Systemwide sales McDonald's headlines — ~95% of restaurants are franchised, and McDonald's books only its rent and royalty take on franchisee sales. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $13,616M, +6.4% on H1 2025's $12,799M (+3% constant currency — the weak dollar did half the work); TTM through 2026-06-30 = $27,702M. The base is unchanged; the new half-year belongs in Year 1.
Base EBIT marginMcDonald's Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000063908-26-000032, filed 2026-02-11): GAAP operating income $12,393M / revenue $26,885M = 46.10%. This INCLUDES $229M of pre-tax restructuring charges ('Accelerating the Organization'); excluding them the margin is 46.95%. GAAP is kept deliberately: McDonald's has booked restructuring charges every year since 2023 ($291M in 2024, $229M in 2025, $99M in H1 2026), so they behave like a recurring cost rather than a one-off. RENT STAYS IN EBIT: the ~$1.6B of annual rent McDonald's pays on the land and buildings it sub-leases to franchisees sits inside 'franchised restaurants-occupancy expenses', which is why operating leases are kept OUT of net debt (see market.net_debt). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating margin 46.21% ($6,292M / $13,616M) vs 45.94% in H1 2025; TTM 46.22% ($12,805M / $27,702M). A ~46% operating margin is what a franchisor-landlord looks like: franchised margins (rent + royalty less occupancy cost) are ~90% of restaurant margin dollars.	46.1%	McDonald's Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000063908-26-000032, filed 2026-02-11): GAAP operating income $12,393M / revenue $26,885M = 46.10%. This INCLUDES $229M of pre-tax restructuring charges ('Accelerating the Organization'); excluding them the margin is 46.95%. GAAP is kept deliberately: McDonald's has booked restructuring charges every year since 2023 ($291M in 2024, $229M in 2025, $99M in H1 2026), so they behave like a recurring cost rather than a one-off. RENT STAYS IN EBIT: the ~$1.6B of annual rent McDonald's pays on the land and buildings it sub-leases to franchisees sits inside 'franchised restaurants-occupancy expenses', which is why operating leases are kept OUT of net debt (see market.net_debt). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating margin 46.21% ($6,292M / $13,616M) vs 45.94% in H1 2025; TTM 46.22% ($12,805M / $27,702M). A ~46% operating margin is what a franchisor-landlord looks like: franchised margins (rent + royalty less occupancy cost) are ~90% of restaurant margin dollars.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance (0.414), Blume-adjusted: Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.414 (yfinance, read 2026-10-03); my own regression of 59 monthly total returns against the S&P 500 gives 0.446, so the published figure is not a data error. NORMALIZED UP to 0.61 with the standard Blume adjustment (0.67 x 0.414 + 0.33 = 0.607), the same 'adjusted beta' Bloomberg publishes. This is CONSERVATIVE — it raises the discount rate and LOWERS the value. Reason: a 0.41 beta prices McDonald's equity barely above a Treasury (cost of equity 7.3%), and the window that produced it is dominated by a stock-specific slide (~$335 in early March 2026 to $231.89 at the 2 Oct close) that moved independently of a rising market — idiosyncratic risk the regression scores as LOW systematic risk. A levered company carrying ~$42B of debt and negative book equity is not a near-risk-free equity. THIS IS THE LARGEST SINGLE JUDGEMENT IN THE FILE: accepting the published 0.414 lifts the value from $218.73 to ~$269.54 (WACC 6.80% vs 7.58%), which would read as ~16% undervalued; each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $18-20/share.	0.61	ESTIMATEAssumption — Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance (0.414), Blume-adjusted: Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.414 (yfinance, read 2026-10-03); my own regression of 59 monthly total returns against the S&P 500 gives 0.446, so the published figure is not a data error. NORMALIZED UP to 0.61 with the standard Blume adjustment (0.67 x 0.414 + 0.33 = 0.607), the same 'adjusted beta' Bloomberg publishes. This is CONSERVATIVE — it raises the discount rate and LOWERS the value. Reason: a 0.41 beta prices McDonald's equity barely above a Treasury (cost of equity 7.3%), and the window that produced it is dominated by a stock-specific slide (~$335 in early March 2026 to $231.89 at the 2 Oct close) that moved independently of a rising market — idiosyncratic risk the regression scores as LOW systematic risk. A levered company carrying ~$42B of debt and negative book equity is not a near-risk-free equity. THIS IS THE LARGEST SINGLE JUDGEMENT IN THE FILE: accepting the published 0.414 lifts the value from $218.73 to ~$269.54 (WACC 6.80% vs 7.58%), which would read as ~16% undervalued; each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $18-20/share.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. Not obviously generous or punitive for McDonald's: it is still opening ~2,600 restaurants a year (net ~2,100) and targets 50,000 by end-2028, but management itself guides the unit contribution down to ~2% of Systemwide growth by 2030 and says industry traffic is flat, so a perpetuity near nominal GDP is the honest middle. 3.0% adds ~$25/share ($243.99); 2.0% takes ~$21 off ($198.00). Must remain < WACC of 7.58% — and with a WACC this low, the terminal value is very sensitive to it (see caveats).	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. Not obviously generous or punitive for McDonald's: it is still opening ~2,600 restaurants a year (net ~2,100) and targets 50,000 by end-2028, but management itself guides the unit contribution down to ~2% of Systemwide growth by 2030 and says industry traffic is flat, so a perpetuity near nominal GDP is the honest middle. 3.0% adds ~$25/share ($243.99); 2.0% takes ~$21 off ($198.00). Must remain < WACC of 7.58% — and with a WACC this low, the terminal value is very sensitive to it (see caveats).
Diluted sharesMcDonald's Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000063908-26-000073, filed 2026-08-07): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 711.1M (H1 2026 712.3M; FY2025 716.4M). 707.64M were outstanding at 2026-06-30. The count FALLS about 1% a year: buybacks ($2,056M in FY2025, $1,251M in H1 2026) more than offset option and RSU issuance (SBC $165M in FY2025).	711M	McDonald's Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000063908-26-000073, filed 2026-08-07): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 711.1M (H1 2026 712.3M; FY2025 716.4M). 707.64M were outstanding at 2026-06-30. The count FALLS about 1% a year: buybacks ($2,056M in FY2025, $1,251M in H1 2026) more than offset option and RSU issuance (SBC $165M in FY2025).
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC	$242.97	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC

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What does McDonald's Corporation do?

What does it do?

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. It operates in the Restaurants industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 150,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $27.7B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $46 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 46.5%), after a 57% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 31.7% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: can just cover its short-term bills (1.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

MCD insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for McDonald's Corporation. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

Common questions

What is MCD's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is $232.00 per share, versus a market price of $242.97 (priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02).
Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02 at $242.97. We don't call MCD overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for MCD?
A WACC of 7.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is McDonald's stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is $232.00 against a market price of $242.97. Our read: Priced within our range of $136.67 – $294.02. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
McDonald's (MCD) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is $232.00, built on a 7.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into McDonald's stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 4.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $242.97. A model estimate, not investment advice.
McDonald's (MCD) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for McDonald's Corporation (MCD). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.