MPC · Intrinsic value
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) overvalued or undervalued?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) trades at the delayed market price of $478.07 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 5.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $780.07 a share (39% below fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is MPC undervalued?
- Fair value
- $780.07
- Market price
- $478.07
- Upside to fair value
- +63.2%
- Verdict
- 39% below fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 5.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is MPC's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Energy companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 46 of 100
Cheaper than 46% of Energy companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 39 of 100
More profitable than 39% of Energy companies in US
- Financial health · 40 of 100
Financially stronger than 40% of Energy companies in US
- Growth · 83 of 100
Growing faster than 83% of Energy companies in US
- Momentum · 91 of 100
Outperformed 91% of Energy companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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MPC DCF valuation: where the gap comes from
At a recent price of $478.07, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) trades 39% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $780.07 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices MPC undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +63.2% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values MPC at about $742.29 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Marathon Petroleum Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 81% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 5.6% annual revenue growth for MPC. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MPC's modeled DCF value ranges from about $502.64 to $1,487 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Marathon Petroleum Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MPC's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind MPC's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueMarathon Petroleum Corporation FY2025 10-K (accession 0001510295-26-000009): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $132,699,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginMarathon Petroleum Corporation FY2025 10-K (accession 0001510295-26-000009): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 8,291,000,000 / revenue 132,699,000,000 = 6.25%, FY2025. | 6.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.54 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesMarathon Petroleum Corporation FY2025 10-K (accession 0001510295-26-000009): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 306,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 306M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:30 UTC | $478.07 |
Change MPC's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Marathon Petroleum Corporation do?
What does it do?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an integrated downstream energy company operating refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States. It refines crude oil and other feedstocks into transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt, and operates midstream and renewable diesel segments.
How does it make money?
The company generates revenue by refining crude oil into refined products and selling them, along with purchasing and reselling refined products and ethanol through distribution and marketing services. In the trailing period, Marathon Petroleum reported total revenue of $154.1 billion with a net profit margin of 5.55%.
Is it financially healthy?
Marathon Petroleum has a current ratio of 1.25, meaning it has $1.25 in current assets for every $1.00 of current liabilities, indicating reasonable short-term liquidity. However, its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.33 indicates the company carries notable leverage, with debt exceeding equity.
Who at MPC filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon Shawn M | SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC | Open-market sale | $375,750.00 | Form 4 for Lyon Shawn M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Lyon Shawn M | SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC | Open-market sale | $156,616.75 | Form 4 for Lyon Shawn M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Brzezinski Erin M | VP and Controller | Open-market sale | $206,790.30 | Form 4 for Brzezinski Erin M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Benson Molly R | Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec | Option exercise | $343,465.08 | Form 4 for Benson Molly R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Benson Molly R | Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec | Open-market sale | $2,580,269.72 | Form 4 for Benson Molly R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Benson Molly R | Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec | Option exercise | $238,650.00 | Form 4 for Benson Molly R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is MPC's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is $780.07 per share, versus a market price of $478.07 (39% below fair value).
Is MPC overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value MPC looks undervalued vs fair value at $478.07. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for MPC?
A WACC of 7.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Marathon Petroleum stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is $780.07 against a market price of $478.07. Our read: 39% below fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is $780.07, built on a 7.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Marathon Petroleum stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 5.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $478.07. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): Lyon Shawn M, SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC, open-market sale on 2026-08-31. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.